Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja

Odnotowany: 2025 Dec 21 1230 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com

Aktywność słoneczna

Podsumowanie dobowe

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4317 (N12E67, Cao/beta) produced most of the C-flare activity observed this period, and exhibited growth as the region rotated into full view from the east limb. Growth was also observed in Regions 4311 (N04W48, Cro/beta) and 4316 (S07E33, Dso/beta), while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Prognoza

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares through 23 Dec.

Cząsteczki energetyczne

Podsumowanie dobowe

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 7,320 pfu observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Prognoza

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-23 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 23 Dec.

Wiatr słoneczny

Podsumowanie dobowe

The solar wind environment became enhanced this period with the onset of CIR effects beginning at around 21/0000 UTC. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 15 nT, and the Bz component briefly reached as far southward as -12 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from a low of around 450 km/s to a peak near 650 km/s. Phi was mostly positive throughout the period.

Prognoza

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 21-23 Dec due to CIR effects followed by positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geoprzestrzeń

Podsumowanie dobowe

The geomagnetic field reached active levels this period in response to CIR effects.

Prognoza

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, on 21 Dec in response to CIR effects followed by positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm periods, on 21-22 Dec under persistent CH HSS influences.