Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja

Odnotowany: 2026 Jun 03 1230 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com

Aktywność słoneczna

Podsumowanie dobowe

Solar activity reached high levels with two R2 (Moderate) solar flares and one R3 (Strong), all from Region 4455 (N14W20, Cki/beta-gamma): an M9.3/sf at 03/0136 UTC, an M7.7/2B at 03/0700 UTC, and an X1.0 at 03/1128 UTC. The M9.3 was accompanied by a Type IV radio sweep and a 10.7cm radio burst peaking at 360 sfu. An associated CME became visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 03/0213 UTC. The structure is very faint, but GOES/SUVI imagery suggests that the structure is a partial to full halo, and triangulation with STEREO coronagraph imagery indicates there is an Earth-directed component. Modeling is still ongoing. The M7.7 was also accompanied by a 10.7cm radio burst, this one peaking at 540 sfu, and a Type II radio burst with an estimated shock velocity of 313 km/s. An associated CME became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 03/0748 UTC; both coronagraph and GOES/SUVI imagery suggest that the bulk of this eruption may have been deflected northward due to the nearby coronal hole. Triangulation with STEREO also indicates this CME has an Earth-directed component. Modeling is still ongoing. The X1.0 also had a 10.7cm radio burst, this one lower than the two M-flares, peaking at only 250 sfu. If a CME is associated with this flare, it should become visible in coronagraph imagery in a few hours. There was also an M3.3 flare at 02/1650 UTC (also from Region 4455) that coincided with a large far-sided eruption whos CME became visible in LASCO C2 at 02/1700 UTC. While localized coronal dimming seen in SUVI 195 near Region 4455 suggests a front-side eruption occurred with the flare, a definitive CME signature is not clear in coronagraph data. Modeling of this CME suggests there is no Earth-directed component. Modeling of a large filament eruption from the SW from earlier in 02 June confirms no Earth-directed component; however its timing, source location, and relatively slow velocity mean that it has a high probability of interacting with the faster CMEs behind it and changing their propagation into the near-Earth environment. There are eight numbered regions on the visible disk, with Region 4449 (S08, L=137) having decayed to plage. Region 4455 remains complex, displaying an anti-Hale configuration caused by a series of small negative polarity spots developing south and west of its mature positive spot; these spots exhibited continuous flux emergence, causing a very mixed polarity area with substantial shear, likely the source of the high level M-class flaring from that region. Regions 4458 (S05W08, Dai/beta-gamma), 4459 (N14E35, Dai/beta-gamma), 4460 (S22W74, Dao/beta), and 4461 (S20E57, Cai/beta-gamma) showed very rapid flux emergence during the reporting period, leading to three of the regions developing gamma magnetic configurations. However, these regions have been quiet flare-wise. The remaining regions were stable or in decay.

Prognoza

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels through 05 June with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring likely and a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) primarily due to Regions 4455, 4458, 4461, and 4462.

Cząsteczki energetyczne

Podsumowanie dobowe

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels with a peak flux of 684 pfu observed at 02/1815 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Prognoza

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels through 05 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to continue at background levels through 05 June, as the high-level M-class flares discussed above are not at a highly geoeffective location for particle events.

Wiatr słoneczny

Podsumowanie dobowe

Solar wind parameters continued to reflect slightly elevated background conditions. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged near 6 nT during the first half of the reporting period, then it gradually increased to a peak of 10 nT until a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) at approximately 03/0755 UTC. The North-South (Bz) component was variable, with a maximum southward deflections of -6 nT at 02/1715 UTC and 03/0020 UTC. Solar wind speeds varied averaged just slightly less than 400 km/s before the SSBC, afterwards averaging approximately 425 km/s. The phi angle was largely in the negative (towards the Sun) sector.

Prognoza

Solar wind parameters maybe become mildly enhanced on 03 June due to low-confidence glancing influences from the slow 30 May CME. Late on 03 June or early on 04 June, more significant enhancements are expected with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Elevated conditions driven by the +CH HSS are expected to persist through 05 June.

Geoprzestrzeń

Podsumowanie dobowe

The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions.

Prognoza

Geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a small chance for isolated active levels, due to on 03 June due to low confidence 30 May CME influences and anticipated CIR effects. Unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, are anticipated on 04-05 June due to +CH HSS influences. A chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming 4-5 June is further heightened by the possibility of a transient arrival associated with the M3.3 flare, whose signature may have been obscured in available imagery.