Previsioni Meteorologiche Spaziali - Discussione

Emesso: 2026 Feb 16 0030 UTC
Preparati dal Dipartimento di Commercio degli Stati Uniti, NOAA, Centro di Previsione Meteorologica Spaziale e elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.com

Attività solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C1.8 at 15/2106 UTC from AR 4374 (N10W11, Hsx/alpha). All regions were either stable or in decay, with Region 4377 (N08E55, Cro/beta) exhibiting the most decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Previsione

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 18 Feb.

Particelle energetiche

Sommario di 24 ore

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Previsione

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 16 Feb, before increasing to high levels on 17-18 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 18 Feb.

Vento Solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar wind parameters were consistent with the onset of CIR effects preceding positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) reached a peak of 13 nT. The Bz (north-south) component was predominantly northward, with regular southward deviations by as much as -11 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from a low of around 520 km/s to a peak just over 750 km/s at 15/1157 UTC; afterward it averaged around 650 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away from the Sun).

Previsione

The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 18 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, likely transitioning to negative polarity CH HSS influence on 18 Feb.

Geospaziale

Sommario di 24 ore

The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to CIR effects preceding positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Previsione

Isolated periods of G1 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely on 16 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS influences with potential weak CME enhancements as a CME from 13 Feb might pass in close proximity. Active conditions are likely on 17 Feb as CH HSS influences begin to wane, with quiet to unsettled expected on 18 Feb.