Previsioni Meteorologiche Spaziali - Discussione
Emesso: 2026 Feb 16 0030 UTC
Preparati dal Dipartimento di Commercio degli Stati Uniti, NOAA, Centro di Previsione Meteorologica Spaziale e elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.com
Attività solare
Sommario di 24 ore
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was a C1.8 at 15/2106 UTC from AR 4374 (N10W11, Hsx/alpha). All regions
were either stable or in decay, with Region 4377 (N08E55, Cro/beta)
exhibiting the most decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in
available imagery.
Previsione
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 18 Feb.
Particelle energetiche
Sommario di 24 ore
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Previsione
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 16 Feb, before increasing to high levels on 17-18 Feb. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels through 18 Feb.
Vento Solare
Sommario di 24 ore
Solar wind parameters were consistent with the onset of CIR effects
preceding positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field
strength (Bt) reached a peak of 13 nT. The Bz (north-south) component
was predominantly northward, with regular southward deviations by as
much as -11 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from a low of
around 520 km/s to a peak just over 750 km/s at 15/1157 UTC; afterward
it averaged around 650 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive
(away from the Sun).
Previsione
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 18 Feb
due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, likely transitioning to
negative polarity CH HSS influence on 18 Feb.
Geospaziale
Sommario di 24 ore
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to CIR
effects preceding positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Previsione
Isolated periods of G1 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely
on 16 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS influences with potential weak
CME enhancements as a CME from 13 Feb might pass in close proximity.
Active conditions are likely on 17 Feb as CH HSS influences begin to
wane, with quiet to unsettled expected on 18 Feb.