Previsioni Meteorologiche Spaziali - Discussione

Emesso: 2026 May 21 1230 UTC
Preparati dal Dipartimento di Commercio degli Stati Uniti, NOAA, Centro di Previsione Meteorologica Spaziale e elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.com

Attività solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar activity was at very low levels during the past 24 hours. Region 4441 (N07W37, Eai/beta-gamma) showed some magnetic development during the period. The other numbered regions were stable or in decay. New Region 4444 (S20E76, Hsx/alpha) was numbered and was inactive. There was a CME off the NW limb that appears to have originated in the vicinity of Region 4436 (N19W78, Cso/beta). This event was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 20/1612 UTC. This event is being analyzed for potential impacts at the time of this summary.

Previsione

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 23 May, with a slight chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 21 May, primarily due to the complexity of Region 4441 and the recent flaring history of Region 4436. An increased in activity is anticipated 22-23 May as multiple active regions, tracked via far-side satellite and helioseismology imagery, rotate into view.

Particelle energetiche

Sommario di 24 ore

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels, reaching a peak level of 1720 pfu at 20/1615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Previsione

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to normal to moderate levels on 21 May as current conditions wane. A return to high levels is anticipated on 22-23 May following the geoeffective onset of a new coronal hole high-speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 23 May.

Vento Solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar wind parameters trended toward background conditions with speeds reaching a peak of 542 km/s at 20/0222Z and then decreasing steadily throughout the reporting period, ending at ~430 km/s. Total IMF reached 6 nT while the maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT The phi angle remained on the negative sector.

Previsione

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue trending toward nominal conditions through early on 21 May. Mild enhancements are likely on 21 May from a solar sector boundary crossing, with more pronounced high-speed stream conditions expected on 22-23 May due to the influences of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS).

Geospaziale

Sommario di 24 ore

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.

Previsione

Isolated active periods are likely on 21 May following an anticipated sector boundary crossing and the onset of the approaching +CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated 22-23 May due to persisting +CH HSS influences.