X1.2 solar flare with earth-directed CME

maanantaina, 10. marraskuuta 2025 18.28 UTC

Looking at the CME we see that the bulk of the full halo coronal mass ejection is heading mostly to the north-west but there is a clear full halo which means an Earth-directed component is pretty much a guarantee. Today's X-class event is together with the X1.7 CME from yesterday, the second CME which has a high likelihood to arrive at Earth in the next 24 to 36 hours.

There has not been an official forecast yet at the time of writing this article but what we can conclude is that this CME is much faster than the X1.7 CME from yesterday. It is likely that today's X1.2 CME arrives shortly (within 12 hours) or maybe even catches up the the X1.7 CME that was launched yesterday. An arrival early on Wednesday, 12 November is likely but there will be two CMEs passing Earth in close proximity or as one messed up plasma cloud so it will be nowcasting what kind of effect this will have on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions at Earth. In case of favorable solar wind and IMF conditions we expect moderate G2 to strong G3 storm conditions on 12 November.