3 vuorokauden ennuste

Julkaistu: 2026 Apr 03 0030 UTC
Laatija: Yhdysvaltain kauppaministeriö, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center ja käsittelijä SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA geomagneettisen aktiivisuuden havainnot ja ennuste

Suurin havaittu Kp-lukema 3 h jaksolta viimeisten 24 tunnin aikana oli 6 (NOAA-asteikko G2).

Suurin odotettu Kp-lukema 3 h jaksolta Apr 03–Apr 05 2026 on 6 (.00NOAA-asteikko G2).

NOAA Kp-indeksierittely

             Apr 03       Apr 04       Apr 05
00-03UT       5.33 (G1)    6.00 (G2)    3.67     
03-06UT       4.00         6.00 (G2)    2.00     
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    5.67 (G2)    3.00     
09-12UT       3.33         3.67         3.00     
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    3.33         3.00     
15-18UT       2.67         4.67 (G1)    3.33     
18-21UT       4.33         3.67         3.33     
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         3.33     

Perustelu

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels on 03 Apr due to continued CH HSS activity. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for G3 (Strong), are likely from late on 03 Apr and through 04 Apr due to anticipated effects from the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Apr. A decrease to active levels is expected over 05 Apr as solar wind enhancements wane.

B. NOAA aurinkosäteilyn aktiivisuuden havainnot ja ennuste

Aurinkosäteilyn, NOAA GOES- 18 havainnoissa viimeisten 24 tunnin aikana, olivat alle S-asteikon myrskytason.

Aurinkomyrskyennuste Apr 03 – Apr 05 2026

              Apr 03  Apr 04  Apr 05
S1 tai enemmän   50%     50%     25%

Perustelu

There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 03-05 Apr due primarily to the CME associated with the filament eruption from 01 Apr.

C. NOAA radioyhteyskatkosten aktiivisuus ja -ennuste

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 02 2026 1815 UTC.

Radioyhteyskatkosennuste Apr 03 – Apr 05 2026

              Apr 03        Apr 04        Apr 05
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 tai enemmän   20%           20%           20%

Perustelu

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) levels, with slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares over 03-05 Apr, due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 4404, 4405 and 4409.