Avaruussääennuste - Perusteet

Julkaistu: 2025 Dec 19 0030 UTC
Laatija: Yhdysvaltain kauppaministeriö, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center ja käsittelijä SpaceWeatherLive.com

Auringon aktiivisuus

24 h yhteenveto

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C3.2 at 18/0750 UTC from Region 4312 (N18E60, Hsx/alpha). New spots emerged in the SE quadrant and was numbered as Region 4313 (S14E29, Axx/alpha). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Ennuste

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 18-20 Dec.

Energiset hiukkaset

24 h yhteenveto

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,690 pfu observed at 18/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels during the period.

Ennuste

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 21 Dec due to HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 19-21 Dec.

Aurinkotuuli

24 h yhteenveto

Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 540-723 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component was between +/-6 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Ennuste

Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually diminish over 19-20 Dec. A return to nominal levels is expected by 21 Dec.

Geoavaruus

24 h yhteenveto

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to persistent CH HSS activity.

Ennuste

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled on 19-20 Dec with isolated active periods possible. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return by 21 Dec.