Avaruussääennuste - Perusteet

Julkaistu: 2026 Jun 09 0030 UTC
Laatija: Yhdysvaltain kauppaministeriö, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center ja käsittelijä SpaceWeatherLive.com

Auringon aktiivisuus

24 h yhteenveto

Solar activity remained at low levels with the two largest flares of the day originating from Region 4465 (N11E70, Dao/beta): a C7.2 at 08/0249 UTC and a C4.5/Sf at 08/0510 UTC. There are eight active regions on disk, most of them remained stable or showed some decay in area. Region 4464 (S12E24, Dac/beta-gamma) became more complex magnetically, gained additional intermediary spots during the period, and was the source of a C1.2 at 08/1733 UTC. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Ennuste

Isolated M-class flares are likely, with a slight chance for X-class flares, through 11 June primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456 (N17W61, Dai/beta), 4462 (N15W07, Dsi/beta), 4464 and 4465.

Energiset hiukkaset

24 h yhteenveto

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,310 pfu at 08/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period.

Ennuste

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are likely to continue reaching high levels through 10 June, returning to moderate-low levels on 11 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 11 June.

Aurinkotuuli

24 h yhteenveto

Solar wind parameters suggested a glancing blow from the 06 June CME that was anticipated to arrive during the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from about 600 km/s to below 450 km/s, while the total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) strength showed a slight oscillation around 5nT. All the 3 components of the IMF vector became negative between 08/0300 UTC and 08/1400 UTC, with Bz reaching as south as -4 nT around 08/0919 UTC. The Phi angle remained mostly in the positive sector during the day.

Ennuste

Analysis of the solar wind parameters, along with the suprathermal ions and electrons data from instruments at L1, suggested that the 06 June CME glancing passage near Earth already occurred on 08 June, reducing our confidence in further impacts on the next days. Therefore, background solar wind is expected until 11 June, when a -CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective.

Geoavaruus

24 h yhteenveto

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during the past 24h.

Ennuste

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 09 June, quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Jun, and active levels on 11 June (due to anticipated -CH HSS effects).