Het archief bekijken van donderdag 23 april 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 113 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 23 APR 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 22-2100Z tot 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED X1 X-RAY BURST WAS DETECTED AT 23/0555Z. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTED OFF THE SE-NE LIMB NOTED BY SPACE-BASED SENSORS. FURTHER ANALYSIS INDICATED THE FOOT POINTS OF THE EJECTION APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR RETURNING REGIONS 8190 (S21,L144) AND 8196 (N18,L144). BOTH REGIONS ARE LESS THAN A DAY BEHIND THE EAST LIMB. THE X-RAY BURST WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 10.7CM RADIO BURST OF 430 SFU, MAKING IT A TENFLARE, AND A TYPE IV SWEEP. POST FLARE LOOPS WERE OBSERVED AS WELL. NEW SWO REGION 8209 (S22W06), A SMALL AXX GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE RETURN OF REGION 8190, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SHOCK WAS NOTED ON ALL INSTRUMENTS AT ABOUT 23/1800Z, INDICATED BY AN INCREASE IN SOLAR WIND DENSITY AND SPEED, AN INCREASE IN PARTICLES DETECTED ON ACE AND GOES, AND A SMALL IMPULSE NOTED EARTH-BASED AND GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOMETERS. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS STILL IN PROGRESS. THE EVENT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND IS CURRENTLY AT 30 PFU.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MID LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THEREAFTER, THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 24 APR tot 26 APR
Klasse M15%15%15%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       23 APR 090
  Voorspelt   24 APR-26 APR  092/094/094
  90 Day Mean        23 APR 104
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 APR  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 APR  009/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 APR-26 APR  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 24 APR tot 26 APR
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%15%10%
Kleine stormcondities10%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief20%15%10%
Kleine stormcondities15%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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