Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2026 Mar 02 1230 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

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Solar activity continued at low levels with frequent C-class flaring. Regions 4381 (N08E48, Eho/beta) and 4384 (N10E70, Dso/beta) were responsible for the vast majority of the flare activity. Region 4381 remained mostly unchanged in total area but showed evidence of new flux emergence and an increase in longitudinal length. Region 4384 rotated further into view, but was still too foreshortened for accurate magnetic identification. However, additional trailing spots were observed rotating onto the visible disk with increasing flare activty noted from this region, including a C4.5 flare at 02/0438 UTC, the largest of the period. Region 4378 (N15E15, Cho/beta) regained a couple of its trailing spots, but remained inactive. Region 4380 (S21E35, Cao/beta) exhibited simplification and a loss of area in the penumbra of its trailing spots, decaying to a C-group. Region 4382 (N22, L=278) decayed to plage while Region 4383 (N15W17, Cro/beta) had a few additional spots emerge, but remained inactive. At around 02/0230 UTC, an approximately 20 degree long filament, centered near N53E28, was observed lifting off the visible disk. Simultaneously, at around 02/1000 UTC, an approximately 11 degree long filament, centered near N10W68, was observed erupting near the west limb. Coronagraph imagery is beginning to update as of this writing, and analysis will be conducted on both of these events as more data becomes available. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Voorspelling

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 04 Mar.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 7,042 pfu observed at 01/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Voorspelling

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 02-04 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 04 Mar.

Zonnewind

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Solar wind parameters were indicative of an ambient solar wind regime. Solar wind speed averaged near 350 km/s, total magnetic field was hovered between 4-6 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/-5 nT. The Phi angle remained mostly in the negative (towards the Sun) orientation with frequent oscillations into the positive sector.

Voorspelling

Enhancements in solar wind conditions are possible through 02 - 04 Mar due to the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

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The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Voorspelling

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels, with a chance for an isolated active period, by the end of 02 Mar as positive polarity CH HSS influences begin. Activity is likely to persist at mostly unsettled to active levels on 03-04 Mar as high-speed stream influences continue to influence geomagnetic activity.