Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2023 Sep 23 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3435 (N09E03, Dki/beta) produced a long-duration M1.2/Sf flare at 22/0336 UTC. The flare was due to an approximate 17 degree filament structure lifting off beginning at 22/0153 UTC. A likely associated CME was observed off the NE limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 22/0224 UTC. Region 3435 also produced an M1.9/Sf flare at 22/2300 UTC. At 22/0645 UTC, another filament eruption was observed centered near N36W05. An associated CME was observed off the NNW limb beginning at 22/0736 UTC. Both CMEs were modelled with a potential glancing blow early to midday on 24 Sep. Region 3443 (N28W40, Dai/beta-gamma) produced two M-class flares; a M1.4 at 22/1623 UTC and an M1.5 at 22/1715 UTC. Slight growth was observed in Region 3443 and newly numbered 3445 (S15E33, Dai/beta). The delta magnetic structure separated from the main spots in Region 3435. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. New Region 3436 (N23E63, Bxo/beta) was also numbered.

Voorspelling

M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) on 23-25 Sep due to the flare potential of Regions 3435 and 3443.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,550 pfu at 22/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Voorspelling

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 23 and 25 Sep. A decrease to moderate levels is likely on 24 Sep with the arrival of multiple CMEs. There is a slight chance for an S1/Minor solar radiation storm on 23-25 Sep.

Zonnewind

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Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed averaged around 400 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was variable.

Voorspelling

The combination of CH HSS activity and a possible grazing from CMEs that left the Sun on 20 and 21 Sep are likely to enhance solar wind parameters beginning on 23 Sep. Further enhancement is likely on 24 Sep with a possible glancing blow from the 22 Sep CMEs.

Geospace

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Voorspelling

Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 23-24 Sep due to the arrival of multiple CMEs from 20-22 Sep combined with HSS activity. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 25 Sep as activity persists.