Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2024 Oct 24 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

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Solar activity has been at low levels with seven C-Class flares observed. The largest flare was a C7.8 at 23/1212 UTC from Region 3863 (S09E07, Dao/beta-gamma). An associated filament eruption from near the region (S10E16) occurred at 23/1145 UTC. EUV darkening was observed in 195 imagery N of the liftoff. A possible related CME was observed at 23/1248 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Analysis is in progress for any potential Earth-directed components. Newly numbered Region 3869 (S17E71, Ehi/beta-gamma) will continue to come into view over the next 24 hours and it has been responsible for two C-Class flares. All other regions were stable or had slight decay.

Voorspelling

Solar flare activity is expected to be at Minor to Moderate (R1-R2) levels 24-26 Oct with a slight chance for R3-Strong levels as more magnetically complex regions emerge in the SE part of the disk. Region 3869, formerly 3842, was responsible for four X-Class flares on its last transit.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux maintained its diurnal variability between normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels.

Voorspelling

The coronal hole (CH) high-speed stream (HSS) that is expected to continue into 25 Oct will increase 2 MeV electrons but wind speeds will likely suppress the flux at geostationary orbit until winds ease 26 Oct. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will then be slightly elevated but will remain below threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels 24-26 Oct.

Zonnewind

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Solar wind parameters have become enhanced over the period as the positive CH82 HSS became geoeffective. Total magnetic field was 5-12 nT with the Bz component fluctuating between +7/-8 nT. Wind speeds rose from around 320 km/s to 440 km/s before settling to near 375 km/s. The phi angle has remained in the positive sector.

Voorspelling

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced 24-25 Oct as the negative polarity CH84 moves into a more geoeffective position bringing with it another HSS. Enhancements are expected to wane on 26 Oct.

Geospace

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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Voorspelling

Unsettled to active levels are expected on 24-26 Oct due to the influence of negative CH84 HSS. Model guidance suggests a peak in wind speeds and therefore disturbance in the geomagnetic field 25 Oct with waning influences thereafter.