Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2024 Nov 08 1230 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3883 (S06W14, Fkc/beta-gamma) produced the period, an M2.3/1f (R1-Minor) at 07/1506 UTC. The region remained the most complex on the visible disk but exhibited minor slight decay among its intermediate spots. Regions 3886 (S07E07, Eai/beta-gamma) and 3889 (S10E59, Ekc/beta-delta) were also fairly complex but no significant changes were observed in the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Voorspelling
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with continued M-Class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring and a chance for X-Class (R3-Strong) levels 08-10 Nov. Solar flare probabilities are being driven by Regions 3883, 3886, and 3889 due to their history and magnetic complexities.

Energetische deeltjes

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold at GOES-16 at 07/1535 UTC and dropped below threshold at 11/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has remained at background levels.
Voorspelling
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely continue at moderate levels with periods near threshold 08-10 Nov as CME and CH influences continue. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storming levels 08-10 Nov due to the flare potential of Regions 3883, 3886, and 3889.

Zonnewind

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar wind parameters became enhanced starting at 07/1425 UTC from what is most likely the glancing blow from the CME associated with the M3.8 flare on 04/1058 UTC. The total field reached 8nT with the Bz component dropping to -2 nT at the time of arrival. The total field continued to strengthen reaching a max of 9 nT with a -6 nT Bz component. Solar wind speed reached a max of 448 km/s and has been slowly trending towards 350 km/s. Around 08/0000 UTC, the Bz component rotated and remained oriented far north.
Voorspelling
Waning CME influences as well as a weak negative polarity CH91 HSS are expected over 08 Nov. Solar wind parameters may become enhanced again as a large, positive polarity CH HSS in the southern hemisphere and a large, negative polarity CH HSS in the northern hemisphere becomes geoeffective 09-10 Nov.

Geospace

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
Voorspelling
Unsettled to active conditions will likely remain over 08-10 Nov from waning CME influences and the arrival of the two CH HSSs.

Laatste nieuws

Steun Poollicht.be!

Om ook bereikbaar te blijven bij grote poollichtkansen hebben we een zware server nodig die alle bezoekers aankan. Doneer en steun dit project zodat we online blijven en je geen enkele poollichtkans mist!

100%
Steun SpaceWeatherLive met onze merchandise
Check nu onze merchandise

Ruimteweer feitjes

Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting06/11/2024X2.3
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting08/11/2024M1.4
Laatste geomagnetische storm12/10/2024Kp5 (G1)
Zonnevlekkenloze dagen
Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag08/06/2022
Maandelijks gemiddeld zonnevlekkengetal
oktober 2024166.4 +25
november 2024190.1 +23.7
Afgelopen 30 dagen160.2 +7.9

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12013X1.59
22001X1.3
32000X1.07
42001M6.04
52000M4.14
DstG
12004-374G4
21991-280G4
31998-149G4
41961-78G2
51999-73G1
*sinds 1994

Sociale netwerken