Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2021 Sep 26 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h

Solar activity was low. Region 2871 (S28W13, Dac/beta) produced three C1 flares (at 25/0354, 25/1130, and 25/1739 UTC), which were the largest events of the period. Associated with the 25/0354 UTC flare was a Type II radio emission with a shock velocity of 739 km/s. Regions 2871 and 2872 (N18W24, Cro/beta) showed signs of areal decay and consolidation this period. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Voorspelling

Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flare activity, over 26-28 Sep.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Voorspelling

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 26-28 Sep, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Zonnewind

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Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced this period under the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was ranged between 4-6 nT and Bz was mostly neutral or northward throughout the period. Solar wind speeds varied between 500-550 km/s and the phi angle was mostly stable in a negative solar sector orientation.

Voorspelling

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 26-28 Sep due to CH HSS influence and the possible glancing-blow arrival of the 23 Sep CMEs.

Geospace

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Voorspelling

The anticipated influence of a positive polarity, polar-connected, CH HSS is expected to cause periods of active and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 26 Sep. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 27 Sep due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence coupled with the possibility of a glancing blow from the 23 Sep CMEs.