Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer
Datum verslag: 2024 Jul 27 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
Zonneactiviteit
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3761 (S09W86,
Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited signs of decay in its trailing spots but
produced an M1.7/Sf flare at 26/0442 UTC. Region 3762 (S12W20,
Fac/beta-gamma-delta) grew in overall size while maintaining a weak
delta signature. Regions 3768 (S16W00, Axx/alpha) and 3769 (N22E78,
Hsx/alpha) were numbered this period, but were otherwise unremarkable.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
Voorspelling
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class
flares through 29 Jul.
Energetische deeltjes
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to near background levels.
Voorspelling
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 29 Jul. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar
radiation event will persist through 29 Jul as the complex of spots
consisting of ARs 3751 and 3761 rotate around the western limb.
Zonnewind
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar wind parameters were enhanced early this period from what was
likely CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached 17 nT and the Bz
component underwent a few sustained southward deflections early in the
day. Solar wind speeds peaked at approximately 600 km/s before settling
near 500 km/s. Phi was positive outside of ~26/0400-26/0945 UTC, where
it was in a negative orientation.
Voorspelling
Current conditions are likely to continue into 27 Jul with a further
enhancement likely on 27 Jul due to glancing CME influences from the
C4.5 flare events from AR 3751 on 23 Jul. A gradual wane to a more
ambient-like environment is anticipated for 28 Jul. Another transient
feature is possible on 29 Jul due to a broad area of dimming near center
disk early on 25 Jul, however, confidence is low.
Geospace
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS
effects.
Voorspelling
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely to occur on 27 Jul with
continued CH HSS influences in addition to possible glancing effects
from the 23 Jul CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail
on 28 Jul and any lingering CH HSS/CME effects are expected to subside.
Quiet to active conditions are possible on 29 Jul due to the possible
arrival of a transient associated with dimming near center disk early on
25 Jul.