Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer
Datum verslag: 2023 Sep 23 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
Zonneactiviteit
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3435 (N09E03, Dki/beta)
produced a long-duration M1.2/Sf flare at 22/0336 UTC. The flare was due
to an approximate 17 degree filament structure lifting off beginning at
22/0153 UTC. A likely associated CME was observed off the NE limb in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 22/0224 UTC. Region 3435 also
produced an M1.9/Sf flare at 22/2300 UTC. At 22/0645 UTC, another
filament eruption was observed centered near N36W05. An associated CME
was observed off the NNW limb beginning at 22/0736 UTC. Both CMEs were
modelled with a potential glancing blow early to midday on 24 Sep.
Region 3443 (N28W40, Dai/beta-gamma) produced two M-class flares; a M1.4
at 22/1623 UTC and an M1.5 at 22/1715 UTC. Slight growth was observed in
Region 3443 and newly numbered 3445 (S15E33, Dai/beta). The delta
magnetic structure separated from the main spots in Region 3435. The
rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. New Region
3436 (N23E63, Bxo/beta) was also numbered.
Voorspelling
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely with a slight chance
for X-class flares (R3/Strong) on 23-25 Sep due to the flare potential
of Regions 3435 and 3443.
Energetische deeltjes
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 2,550 pfu at 22/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.
Voorspelling
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
23 and 25 Sep. A decrease to moderate levels is likely on 24 Sep with
the arrival of multiple CMEs. There is a slight chance for an S1/Minor
solar radiation storm on 23-25 Sep.
Zonnewind
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed averaged
around 400 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component
was between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was variable.
Voorspelling
The combination of CH HSS activity and a possible grazing from CMEs that
left the Sun on 20 and 21 Sep are likely to enhance solar wind
parameters beginning on 23 Sep. Further enhancement is likely on 24 Sep
with a possible glancing blow from the 22 Sep CMEs.
Geospace
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
Voorspelling
Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 23-24 Sep due
to the arrival of multiple CMEs from 20-22 Sep combined with HSS
activity. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 25 Sep as
activity persists.