Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer
Datum verslag: 2024 Oct 24 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
Zonneactiviteit
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar activity has been at low levels with seven C-Class flares
observed. The largest flare was a C7.8 at 23/1212 UTC from Region 3863
(S09E07, Dao/beta-gamma). An associated filament eruption from near the
region (S10E16) occurred at 23/1145 UTC. EUV darkening was observed in
195 imagery N of the liftoff. A possible related CME was observed at
23/1248 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Analysis is in progress for any
potential Earth-directed components.
Newly numbered Region 3869 (S17E71, Ehi/beta-gamma) will continue to
come into view over the next 24 hours and it has been responsible for
two C-Class flares. All other regions were stable or had slight decay.
Voorspelling
Solar flare activity is expected to be at Minor to Moderate (R1-R2)
levels 24-26 Oct with a slight chance for R3-Strong levels as more
magnetically complex regions emerge in the SE part of the disk. Region
3869, formerly 3842, was responsible for four X-Class flares on its last
transit.
Energetische deeltjes
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux maintained its diurnal variability
between normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained near background levels.
Voorspelling
The coronal hole (CH) high-speed stream (HSS) that is expected to
continue into 25 Oct will increase 2 MeV electrons but wind speeds will
likely suppress the flux at geostationary orbit until winds ease 26 Oct.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will then be slightly elevated but
will remain below threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels 24-26 Oct.
Zonnewind
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar wind parameters have become enhanced over the period as the
positive CH82 HSS became geoeffective. Total magnetic field was 5-12 nT
with the Bz component fluctuating between +7/-8 nT. Wind speeds rose
from around 320 km/s to 440 km/s before settling to near 375 km/s. The
phi angle has remained in the positive sector.
Voorspelling
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced 24-25 Oct as the
negative polarity CH84 moves into a more geoeffective position bringing
with it another HSS. Enhancements are expected to wane on 26 Oct.
Geospace
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
Voorspelling
Unsettled to active levels are expected on 24-26 Oct due to the
influence of negative CH84 HSS. Model guidance suggests a peak in wind
speeds and therefore disturbance in the geomagnetic field 25 Oct with
waning influences thereafter.