Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2023 Mar 21 1230 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

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Solar activity decreased to low levels this period. Region 3258 (N18E11, Bxo/beta) showed slight growth in its trailing spots and was the source of two C-class flares: a long duration C4.4 flare, which peaked at 20/1534 UTC, and a C1.7 flare at 21/1029 UTC. Region 3252 (N13, L=121) gave a parting shot as it made its way around the western limb, producing a C1.4 flare at 21/0812 UTC. Region 3261 (S23W59, Dao/beta) developed rapidly and was numbered this period, but remained mostly quiet. Despite the threatening appearance of the remaining spot groups in the southeast, most were relatively stable and devoid of significant flare activity. After further analysis, it was determined that the CME observed off the NE limb in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery around 20/1442 UTC was likely associated with the M1 flare mentioned in the previous discussion, with the possibility of an Earth-directed component. Analysis has been severely degraded with the unavailability of STEREO-A coronagraph imagery. However, indications of a potential glancing blow on 23 Mar were identified in the WSA Enlil analysis, though confidence remains low. An additional CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery beginning at 21/0548 UTC, already well away from the occulting disk. Analysis of the GONG H-alpha imagery indicated an approximately 10° long solar filament, located near N34E40, erupted at approximately 21/0350 UTC, which could be the likely source of the CME. Lack of STEREO data, as well as gaps in LASCO coronagraph imagery, are once again degrading an accurate analysis. Aside from the two CMEs just mentioned, there were no other Earth-directed CMEs identified in available imagery.

Voorspelling

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares over 21-23 Mar.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced at around 1 pfu throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate.

Voorspelling

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to remain slightly elevated above background levels through the forecast period (21-23 Mar). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate throughout the forecast period.

Zonnewind

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A mildly enhanced solar wind environment reflected what is likely the nearby, passing influence of a CME that left the Sun on Mar 17 combined with weak CH HSS influence. Wind speeds were between 400-500 km/s, total field strength gradually increased from around 6 nT to peak near 11 nT, while Bz remained mostly positive, with a few southward deviations to near -8 nT. Phi was generally positive with a couple of short, isolated oscillations into a negative orientation.

Voorspelling

A combination of positive polarity CH HSS influence and diminishing effects from the 17 Mar CME transiting nearby are likely to keep the solar wind environment slightly enhanced for the remainder of 21 Mar. Nominal conditions are expected to return by 22 Mar, with possible enhancements on 23 Mar if the CMEs previously mentioned impact the Earth.

Geospace

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The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled to active levels, likely attributed to passing influence from the 17 Mar CME.

Voorspelling

Active levels could still be reached on 21 Mar due to lingering effects from the 17 Mar CME and possible influence from a weak, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected to return by 22 Mar, with possible unsettled to active conditions by 23 Mar if the CME from the 20th impacts the Earth.