Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2024 Apr 18 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar activity was at moderate levels. AR 3645 (S10E24, Cai/beta) produced an M1.6 flare at 17/2208 UTC. AR 3638 (S17E15, Cri/beta) a C9.0/Sn flare at 17/2004 UTC. Growth was observed in ARs 3633 (S07W78, Cso/beta), 3643 (S13E34, Fai/beta) and 3646 (N21E59, Cso/beta). The remaining numbered ARs on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. Other activity included a filament eruption observed around 17/0100 UTC in H-alpha imagery. The approximate 20 degree filament structure was centered near N40W00. An associated CME was observed off the NW limb at 17/0506 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery. Analysis suggested an Earth-directed component was unlikely. A series of CMEs were observed off the SE starting around 17/1730 UTC in C2 imagery. These ejecta are possibly associated with flare activity from a cluster of regions in the SE quadrant. Analysis is ongoing for these events at the time of this summary.
Voorspelling
Solar activity is forecast to be moderate, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong) over 18-20 Apr.

Energetische deeltjes

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
Voorspelling
There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1/Minor) over 18-20 Apr. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 20 Apr.

Zonnewind

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of a passing CME. Solar wind speeds remained low, with values observed from ~345-400 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was predominantly southward from ~17/0800 UTC to ~17/1730 UTC. The Bz component reached as far south as -8 nT.
Voorspelling
Solar wind enhancements from CMEs that left the Sun over 14-15 Apr are expected to pass Earth on 18 Apr and should wane over 19 Apr. 20 Apr is likely to see the onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet unsettled levels.
Voorspelling
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 18 Apr due to anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 14 and 15 Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely over 19 Apr as CME influence wanes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are against likely on 20 Apr from the anticipated onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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Ruimteweer feitjes

Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting28/03/2024X1.1
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting17/04/2024M1.6
Laatste geomagnetische storm16/04/2024Kp5 (G1)
Zonnevlekkenloze dagen
Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag08/06/2022
Maandelijks gemiddeld zonnevlekkengetal
maart 2024104.9 -19.8

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12014X1.05
22016M9.63
32022M1.9
42003M1.6
52002M1.35
ApG
1200150G3
2200263G3
3199625G1
4202313G1
5200321
*sinds 1994

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