Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2022 Dec 05 1230 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

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Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3153 (S17E27, Fko/beta) was the largest spot group on the visible disk but only produced low-level C-class activity. The region along with 3156 (N25E33, Cso/beta) changed very little over the past 24 hours. Region 3154 (S38, L=047) decayed to plage. Region 3157 (N16E55, Dao/beta) developed a small trailer spot. Region 3158 (N24E06, Cro/beta) increased in spot count but no mature penumbra was observed in the region. Region 3155 (N23W31, Dso/beta) developed the most overall, with new spots emerging and also exhibited an increase in penumbral area. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Voorspelling

Solar activity is expected to be low with C-class flare activity, and a slight chance for M-flares (R1-Minor), over 05-07 Dec.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 9,710 pfu observed at 04/1405 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Voorspelling

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 05-07 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Zonnewind

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Solar wind parameters suggested continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds remained elevated between ~480-540 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 4-8 nT. The Bz component was sustained near -7 nT from around 04/1300-1600 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Voorspelling

Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to continue to wane over 05 Dec, with background solar wind conditions expected to prevail on 06-07 Dec.

Geospace

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The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Voorspelling

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 05 Dec under waning positive polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 06 Dec under a nominal solar wind regime. Late on 07, the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS will likely increase geomagnetic conditions to active levels.