Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer
Datum verslag: 2023 Mar 21 1230 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
Zonneactiviteit
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar activity decreased to low levels this period. Region 3258 (N18E11,
Bxo/beta) showed slight growth in its trailing spots and was the source
of two C-class flares: a long duration C4.4 flare, which peaked at
20/1534 UTC, and a C1.7 flare at 21/1029 UTC. Region 3252 (N13, L=121)
gave a parting shot as it made its way around the western limb,
producing a C1.4 flare at 21/0812 UTC. Region 3261 (S23W59, Dao/beta)
developed rapidly and was numbered this period, but remained mostly
quiet. Despite the threatening appearance of the remaining spot groups
in the southeast, most were relatively stable and devoid of significant
flare activity.
After further analysis, it was determined that the CME observed off the
NE limb in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery around 20/1442 UTC was likely
associated with the M1 flare mentioned in the previous discussion, with
the possibility of an Earth-directed component. Analysis has been
severely degraded with the unavailability of STEREO-A coronagraph
imagery. However, indications of a potential glancing blow on 23 Mar
were identified in the WSA Enlil analysis, though confidence remains
low.
An additional CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery
beginning at 21/0548 UTC, already well away from the occulting disk.
Analysis of the GONG H-alpha imagery indicated an approximately 10° long
solar filament, located near N34E40, erupted at approximately 21/0350
UTC, which could be the likely source of the CME. Lack of STEREO data,
as well as gaps in LASCO coronagraph imagery, are once again degrading
an accurate analysis. Aside from the two CMEs just mentioned, there were
no other Earth-directed CMEs identified in available imagery.
Voorspelling
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
over 21-23 Mar.
Energetische deeltjes
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced at around
1 pfu throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was
normal to moderate.
Voorspelling
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to remain slightly
elevated above background levels through the forecast period (21-23
Mar). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate throughout the forecast period.
Zonnewind
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
A mildly enhanced solar wind environment reflected what is likely the
nearby, passing influence of a CME that left the Sun on Mar 17 combined
with weak CH HSS influence. Wind speeds were between 400-500 km/s, total
field strength gradually increased from around 6 nT to peak near 11 nT,
while Bz remained mostly positive, with a few southward deviations to
near -8 nT. Phi was generally positive with a couple of short, isolated
oscillations into a negative orientation.
Voorspelling
A combination of positive polarity CH HSS influence and diminishing
effects from the 17 Mar CME transiting nearby are likely to keep the
solar wind environment slightly enhanced for the remainder of 21 Mar.
Nominal conditions are expected to return by 22 Mar, with possible
enhancements on 23 Mar if the CMEs previously mentioned impact the
Earth.
Geospace
Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled to active levels,
likely attributed to passing influence from the 17 Mar CME.
Voorspelling
Active levels could still be reached on 21 Mar due to lingering effects
from the 17 Mar CME and possible influence from a weak, positive
polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected to return by 22 Mar, with
possible unsettled to active conditions by 23 Mar if the CME from the
20th impacts the Earth.