Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2026 Apr 22 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

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Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C5.3 at 21/0602 UTC from Region 4421 (S09E72, Cao/beta). Region 4419 (N15W37, Eho/beta-gamma) showed minor decay, particularly in its trailing spots. Regions 4420 (N16E52, Dro/beta-gamma) and 4422 (N09W30, Cro/beta) were numbered during the period. Region 4420 was numbered and contributed the remaining C-class flares of the reporting period, due to its rapid flux emergence. A large filament lifted off north of center disk, starting at approximately 20/2350 UTC. The associated slow CME was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at approximately 21/0130 UTC and subsequently in STEREO and GOES CCOR. Modeling suggests that the CME will pass above Earths orbit, with the potential for very minor entanglement with an anticipated coronal hole high speed stream around 24 Apr. No other Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Voorspelling

Solar activity is expected (75%) to be at low levels, with a slight chance (10%) for isolated M-class activity, on 22-24 Apr, primarily due to the flare potential from Region 4420 and limb activity.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a maximum reading of 4,990 pfu at 21/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Voorspelling

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 22-24 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels on 22-24 Apr.

Zonnewind

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Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged ~5 nT after a max of 8 nT at the very beginning of the reporting period. The north-south component (Bz) was predominantly south/negative, with a sustained southward deflection of ~5 nT for the majority of the reporting period. The wind speed maintained an average ~525 km/s, and Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation (towards the Sun).

Voorspelling

Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated 22-23 Apr as the negative polarity CH HSS continues to move from its geoeffective position, transitioning to elevated conditions on 24 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

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The geomagnetic field went from Quiet to G1 (Minor) storming levels due to sustained periods of negative Bz during the ongoing -CH HSS conditions.

Voorspelling

Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected 22-24 Apr, with isolated active conditions possible, due to diminishing negative polarity HSS effects and the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity HSS around 24 Apr.