Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2024 Jul 25 1230 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3751 (S08W77, Dao/beta-gamma) was the culprit of the majority of the activity as it approached the western limb. This AR was responsible for a M2.9 flare at 24/1721 UTC. This event was accompanied by a type II and IV radio sweeps. Regions 3761 (S10W63, Dao/beta-gamma) and 3762 (S12E03, Eai/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest and most magnetically complex spot groups on the visible disk, but were relatively quiet. Region 3766 (S08E58, Cro/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. A CME observed by SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 24/1736 UTC. This two was likely associated with the M2.9 flare from 3751. Analysis and modeling determined a miss ahead of Earths orbit. An additional halo CME was observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery, first visible near 25/0130 UTC in C3. This is possibly associated with a C8.3 flare from Region 3762 at 25/0041 UTC. However, there is evidence of a far sided major flare close to the same time. Analysis of this event is still underway at the time of this summary.
Voorspelling
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) through 27 Jul.

Energetische deeltjes

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, returned to near background levels.
Voorspelling
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 27 Jul. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will persist through 27 Jul as the complex of spots consisting of ARs 3751 and 3761 rotate onto the western limb.

Zonnewind

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
Solar wind parameters, while gradually waning, were slightly disturbed from the shock arrival on late 23 Jul from what was likely the 21 Jul halo CME associated with AR 3757. Total field gradually decreased from 15-19 nT, ending the period around 8 nT. The Bz component of the IMF remained northward or near neutral. Solar wind speeds ranged from ~280 km/s to ~350-360 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative.
Voorspelling
Influence from a CME that left the Sun on 21 Jul is expected to continue through early on 25 Jul. Shock enhancement from a CME departing the eastern limb early on 23 Jul is likely by late 26 Jul. An additional enhancement is likely by early on 27 Jul due to glancing CME influences from the C4.5 flare events from AR 3751 on 23 Jul.

Geospace

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Voorspelling
An early, isolated active period can not be ruled out on 25 Jul as CME influences wane. Otherwise, mostly quiet conditions are expected to persist through late 26 Jul when unsettled to active levels are expected with any shock arrival from the 23 Jul east limb event. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely to commence early on 27 Jul with any glancing effects from the CME produced by the C4.5 flare event from AR 3751 on 23 Jul.

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Ruimteweer feitjes

Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting16/07/2024X2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting24/07/2024M2.9
Laatste geomagnetische storm28/06/2024Kp8- (G4)
Zonnevlekkenloze dagen
Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag08/06/2022
Maandelijks gemiddeld zonnevlekkengetal
juni 2024164.2 -7.5
juli 2024184.7 +20.5
Afgelopen 30 dagen182 +31

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12000X1.15
22004X1.02
32000M5.31
41999M3.44
52004M3.22
DstG
11981-226G4
22004-136G4
31970-108G4
41980-88G3
51972-62G1
*sinds 1994

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