Archief bekijken van maandag 23 november 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 327 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 23 NOV 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 22-2100Z tot 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8384 (S26W101) PRODUCED ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE AS IT CONTINUED TO ROTATE BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. THE FLARE WAS AN X2/SF AT 23/0644UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP, A LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM, AND MODERATE DISCRETE FREQUENCY RADIO EMISSION. OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES WERE DETECTED AT 22/2215UT AND 23/1121UT. A SPRAY REACHING 0.3 SOLAR RADII WAS SEEN ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB NEAR N20 AND WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8375 (N19, L = 185). A 200 SFU TENFLARE WAS DETECTED DURING THE SPRAY. NEW REGION 8393 (S18E71) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS A SMALL D-TYPE. IT IS THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8379, WHICH DID NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY DURING ITS LAST ROTATION. NO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR DECAY WAS NOTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARE PROBABILITIES MAY INCREASE UPON THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8375, WHICH PRODUCED A MAJOR FLARE AND A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING ITS LAST ROTATION. THERE IS STILL A SMALL, BUT DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM BEYOND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT AT GT 10 MEV (THAT FOLLOWED YESTERDAY'S X3/1N FLARE) DECLINED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS, THEN DECLINE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON DAY THREE. THE GT 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX MAY RISE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 24 NOV tot 26 NOV
Klasse M40%30%30%
Klasse X10%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       23 NOV 130
  Voorspelt   24 NOV-26 NOV  125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        23 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 NOV  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 NOV  010/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 NOV-26 NOV  015/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 24 NOV tot 26 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%30%20%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%40%20%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
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