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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 063 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 04 MAR 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8475 (N32W22) PRODUCED A C3/1F AT 03/2343Z AND A C3/SF AT 04/0514Z. REGION 8475 EXHIBITED SLIGHT DECAY. REGION 8476 (N18W34) GREW SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ITS RATE OF EMERGENCE SLOWED. REGION 8471 (N28W63) WAS GENERALLY STABLE.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8471, 8475, AND 8476 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS. THEY ALSO COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING. PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES ARE DUE TO RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY ELEVATE AT THAT TIME. AN ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE FLARE POTENTIAL OF THESE LONGITUDES MUST AWAIT THEIR APPEARANCE AT THE LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. AFTER SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES DECREASED ON 03 MAR TO LESS THAN 400 KM/S, THEY BEGAN TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY ON 04 MAR TO OVER 550 KM/S. DENSITY REMAINED LOW INDICATING A RESURGENCE OF A CORONAL HOLE STREAM IMPACTING THE EARTH. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 04/1920Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE AT PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE CONTINUATION OF A CORONAL HOLE STREAM IMPACTING THE EARTH FROM AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUN. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD REACH HIGH LEVELS EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 05 MAR tot 07 MAR
Klasse M25%25%35%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       04 MAR 144
  Voorspelt   05 MAR-07 MAR  150/158/165
  90 Day Mean        04 MAR 143
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAR  011/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAR  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAR-07 MAR  018/018-015/015-009/009
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 05 MAR tot 07 MAR
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%30%20%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%30%20%
Kleine stormcondities20%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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