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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Jun 27 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 178 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 27 JUN 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8592 (N22W33), A SIMPLE SINGLE SPOT HSX GROUP, PRODUCED AN M1/2N FLARE TODAY AT 0844Z. THE EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. NEW REGION 8611 (S26E60) EMERGED TODAY AND PRODUCED SOME SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. REGION 8598 (N23W11) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF EMERGING NEGATIVE MAGNETIC FLUX IN THE MIDDLE OF A STRONG POSITIVE POLARITY FIELD WHICH HAS LED TO THE FORMATION OF A DELTA SPOT NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS EXTENDED SUNSPOT REGION. A VERY SLOW, LONG DURATION RISE AND DECAY IN THE X-RAY FLUX OCCURRED BETWEEN 1815-2030Z, PEAKING AT THE C3 LEVEL; THE EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBFAINT INTENSITY PLAGE IN REGION 8598. REGION 8602 (N17E22) AND 8603 (S16E29) ARE ALSO OF RESPECTABLE SIZE; BOTH REGIONS PRODUCED A COUPLE SUBFLARES TODAY.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8598 SHOWS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING M-CLASS FLARES. REGIONS 8602, 8603, AND 8606 COULD ALSO POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTE AN M-FLARE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A MAJOR FLARE OR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE FROM 8598. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH SOME MINOR STORM INTERVALS AT HIGH LATITUDES. AN INITIALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BECAME MORE DISTURBED AFTER 1200Z; AFTER WHICH MIDDLE LATITUDES WERE MOSTLY ACTIVE AND HIGH LATITUDES WERE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN OSCILLATING BZ COMPONENT WHICH BEGAN TO HAVE SOME NEGATIVE INTERVALS AFTER 0900Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AFTER WHICH UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. UNSETTLED WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR ACTIVE IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND DAY BECAUSE A NEW DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE ON THE 29TH DUE TO THE PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT OCCURRED ON THE 24TH. GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 28 JUN tot 30 JUN
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X20%20%20%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       27 JUN 207
  Voorspelt   28 JUN-30 JUN  200/200/200
  90 Day Mean        27 JUN 143
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUN  014/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUN  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUN-30 JUN  015/015-015/010-010/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 28 JUN tot 30 JUN
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%35%20%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%35%30%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%10%05%

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