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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 204 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 23 JUL 1999

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 22-2100Z tot 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. NEW REGION 8644 (S24E69) PRODUCED AN M1 AT 23/1601Z. THE BIG BEAR OBSERVATORY REPORTED A FLARE BRIGHT KNOT OF MATERIAL AT THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AT THE TIME OF THE X-RAY BURST. THERE MAY BE A REGION BEHIND 8644 THAT WAS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF THE X-RAY BURST. THIS WOULD BE NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8611 THAT PRODUCED 5 M-CLASS EVENTS LAST ROTATION. REGION 8636 (N21W02) GREW SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD AND SIMPLIFIED. THE WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION VISIBLE IN THIS REGION ON 22 JUL FADED. REGION 8636 PRODUCED A VERY LONG DURATION M1/2F THAT BEGAN AT 23/1832Z AND REACHED MAXIMUM AT 23/2005Z. SEVERAL MID TO HIGH LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES WERE PRODUCED BY THIS REGION. REGION 8639 (N38W60) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE AND EXHIBITED A STRAIGHT BIPOLAR, BUT REVERSE POLARITY, CONFIGURATION.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
AT A MINIMUM, SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8636, 8639, AND 8644 (OR THE REGION BEHIND IT) ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8636 COULD PRODUCE AN X-CLASS EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED WITH BRIEF QUIET PERIODS. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY BEGAN TO DECREASE DURING THE PERIOD BUT REMAINED ABOVE NORMAL.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 24-25 JUL. SHOULD REGION 8636 PRODUCE A LARGE FLARE, IT WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE CHARACTERISTICS (LARGE AREA, LONG DURATION, AND CME CREATION) TO PRODUCE A SOLAR PROTON EVENT AT THE EARTH.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 24 JUL tot 26 JUL
Klasse M90%90%90%
Klasse X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       23 JUL 194
  Voorspelt   24 JUL-26 JUL  175/178/180
  90 Day Mean        23 JUL 155
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUL  023/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUL  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUL-26 JUL  012/012-012/012-008/008
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 24 JUL tot 26 JUL
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%20%20%
Kleine stormcondities05%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%35%30%
Kleine stormcondities05%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%05%01%

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Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting:10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting:20/10/2017M1.0
Laatste geomagnetische storm:10/07/2019Kp5 (G1)
Aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen in 2019:128
Huidig periode aantal zonnevlekkenloze dagen:10

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