Het archief bekijken van zondag 25 juni 2000

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Jun 25 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 177 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 25 JUN 2000

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO A PAIR OF M-CLASS FLARES. THE FIRST WAS AN M2/SF AT 25/0114Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM FROM REGION 9042, NOW ABOUT A DAY BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. THE SECOND WAS AN M1/2N AT 25/0752Z FROM REGION 9046 (N21W61). THIS REGION SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAINED A SMALL, MIXED-POLARITY SPOT GROUP. MINOR GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGIONS 9054 (N12W04) AND 9058 (S14W41). THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AND SIMPLY-STRUCTURED. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED AT NE26 AROUND 25/1200Z. NEW REGION 9062 (S19E72) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY DECREASED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AROUND 25/1300Z, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE M1/SF LIMB-FLARE FROM OLD REGION 9042.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 26 - 27 JUNE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. BRIEF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD. FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 26 JUN tot 28 JUN
Klasse M30%30%35%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       25 JUN 175
  Voorspelt   26 JUN-28 JUN  160/155/155
  90 Day Mean        25 JUN 185
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUN  010/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUN  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUN-28 JUN  018/030-015/020-012/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 26 JUN tot 28 JUN
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%35%25%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities25%25%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%10%01%

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