Het archief bekijken van donderdag 20 januari 2005

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2005 Jan 20 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 020 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 20 Jan 2005

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 19-2100Z tot 20-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W70) produced an X7/2b flare at 0701 UTC, which was accompanied by Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. There is one image from the LASCO C2 coronagraph which shows an associated CME off the northwest limb at 0654 UTC. However, shortly after this observation the coronagraph data became difficult to use due to high levels of energetic particles. Region 720 continues to be large, with a sheared magnetic delta configuration along an east-west polarity inversion line.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 continues to have potential for producing an additional major flare. The location of Region 720 on the disk also implies that there is a fair chance for more energetic particles in association with future major flare activity.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 19-2100Z tot 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds were elevated (700-900 km/s) from the start of the interval up through at least 0700 UTC, after which the ACE real-time SWEPAM data became unusable due to elevated energetic particle flux. The interplanetary magnetic field, however, was weak with fluctuations between -4 nT to +6 nT. A new injection of protons was observed at 0650 UTC in association with the X7 flare. The greater than 100 MeV protons rose rapidly and attained a maximum of 652 PFU at 0710 UTC. The 100 MeV flux has been declining steadily since then. This high flux level makes this the largest greater than 100 MeV proton event observed since October 1989. A greater than 10 MeV proton event was in progress at the time of the new injection, but the new particles quickly increased the flux from initial values around 40 PFU to a peak value in the past 24 hours of 1860 PFU at 0810 UTC.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled to active for the next three days. Today's CME (associated with the X7 flare) is not expected to produce anything more than a glancing blow due to its direction away from the Sun-Earth line. The greater than 10 MeV flux is expected to remain above event threshold for at least another 24 hours.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 21 Jan tot 23 Jan
Klasse M90%90%80%
Klasse X30%30%20%
Proton99%80%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       20 Jan 123
  Voorspelt   21 Jan-23 Jan  115/105/095
  90 Day Mean        20 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 19 Jan  031/062
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 20 Jan  012/015
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  015/025-015/020-010/020
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 21 Jan tot 23 Jan
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%35%20%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%15%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%35%20%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%15%10%

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