Archief bekijken van maandag 16 mei 2005

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2005 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 136 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 16 May 2005

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 15-2100Z tot 16-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 763 (S16E04) produced three low level M-class flares. The largest of these flares was a M3.5 at 15/2236 UTC. This region has increased in size and complexity and now exhibits a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Beginning at 16/1350 UTC, LASCO imagery showed what appeared to be a partial halo CME. This event was actually two events. The first was a DSF near Region 759 (N11W35) at approximately 16/1243 UTC and the second was a backside event at approximately 16/1358 UTC. Most of the front side ejection was directed northward; therefore, the event is not likely to be geoeffective.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 15-2100Z tot 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels with a period of major storm conditions between 16/0300 UTC and 0600 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE has been steadily decreasing from approximately 800 km/s to 550 km/s by the end of the period. The Bz component of the IMF has remained south between -1 nT and -10 nT during this reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm period possible on 17 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 18 and 19 May.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 17 May tot 19 May
Klasse M50%50%50%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       16 May 099
  Voorspelt   17 May-19 May  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        16 May 092
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 15 May  044/105
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 16 May  020/030
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  012/020-008/012-005/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 17 May tot 19 May
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%20%15%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%25%20%
Kleine stormcondities25%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%01%01%

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