Het archief bekijken van maandag 10 februari 2025

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2025 Feb 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Feb 2025	161	014
11 Feb 2025	161	010
12 Feb 2025	163	011

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with one M-class flare. The largest flare was an M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3572) peaking at 00:46 UTC on February 10, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981, magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently nine numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 391 and 397 (NOAA Active Regions 3981 and 3988), both of magnetic type beta- gamma. SIDC Sunspot Groups 360 and 395 (NOAA ARs 3978 and 3984) have rotated behind the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA AR 3981) is currently rotating behind the west limb but may still exhibit flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 342 (NOAA AR 3989, magnetic type alpha) has rotated on disk from the east limb. A currently unnumbered region has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the south quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a chance for M-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 11:30 UTC on February 10. It is estimated to be a backsided event and it is not expected to impact the Earth. A narrow CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 00:15 UTC on February 10, associated with a prominence eruption near the east limb, in the northeast quadrant. It is not expected to impact the Earth. A faint CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 01:30 UTC on February 10, most likely associated with the M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3572) peaking at 00:46 UTC on February 10 and a prominence eruption near SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). It is not expected to impact the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronale gaten

The southern, low-latitude, negative-polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) is still crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from UTC midday on February 12.

Zonnewind

The solar wind conditions (ACE & DSCOVER) were enhanced during the last 24 hours following the arrival of a high-speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88). Speed values increased from 400 km/s to around 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 22 nT and has currently decreased to around 8 nT. The Bz component varied between -15 nT and 8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions may be observed over the next 24 hours, with a gradual decrease to slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetisme

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5-) between 18:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC on February 09 and 00:00 UTC and 03:00 UTC on February 10. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached minor storm levels (K BEL 5) between 20:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on February 09. Mostly unsettled to active conditions (NOAA Kp 3 to 4), with a small chance of minor storm intervals are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux niveaus

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity.

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours (with increased values measured by GOES 16 between 14:00 and 17:00 UTC on February 09) and it is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 099, gebaseerd op 03 stations.

Zon indexen voor 09 Feb 2025

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	039
AK Wingst	017
Geschatte Ap	020
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	117 - Gebaseerd op 10 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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