Datum verslag: 2026 Aug 21 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
| 10cm flux | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 127 | 014 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | 125 | 010 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | 122 | 005 |
Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with two M-class flares identified. The strongest flare was an M2.9 flare (SIDC Flare 8431), peaking at 16:11 UTC on August 20, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 929 (NOAA Active Region 4513, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 929 grew over the past 24 hours and remains the most complex group. SIDC Sunspot Group 930 (magnetic type alpha) rotated on disk from the east limb, while SIDC Sunspot Group 947 (magnetic type beta) emerged in the southwest quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 940 (NOAA Active Region 4507, magnetic type beta-gamma) is rotating across the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.
A wide Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 711) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting from around 12:00 UTC on August 20, directed mainly eastward. The CME was associated with the M8.1 flare (SIDC Flare 8423), peaking at 11:42 UTC on August 20 from SIDC Sunspot Group 929 (NOAA Active Region 4513), located near the east limb. Type II radio emission was detected at 11:36 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 1201 km/s. The CME is not expected to impact Earth. Another wide and fast Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 712) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting from around 18:48 UTC on August 20, directed mainly westward. The CME was associated with a backside filament eruption. Type II radio emission was detected at 18:48 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 927 km/s. The CME is not expected to impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters reflected enhanced solar wind conditions under the influence of a high-speed stream. Speed values ranged between about 480 km/s and 580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values remained below 7 nT. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist over the next 24 hours, with a gradual decreasing trend under the continued influence of the high-speed stream.
Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 1 to 3+, K BEL 1 to 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with a chance for isolated active intervals due to the continued influence of the high-speed stream, depending on the Bz orientation.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold between 17:00 UTC on August 20 and 04:00 UTC on August 21, before decreasing below the threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 remained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain around the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to increase to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.
Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 088, gebaseerd op 12 stations.
| Wolfgetal Catania | 059 |
| 10cm zonneflux | 125 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | /// |
| AK Wingst | 015 |
| Geschatte Ap | 013 |
| Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal | 061 - Gebaseerd op 21 stations |
| Dag | Start | Max | Einde | Locatie | Sterkte | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Soorten radio-uitbarstingen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 1132 | 1142 | 1154 | N06E79 | M8.1 | SF | 13/4513 | II/3 | |
| 20 | 1552 | 1611 | 1621 | N03E71 | M2.9 | 1F | 13/4513 | ||
| 21 | 0909 | 0957 | 1009 | ---- | M1.6 | 10/4507 | |||
| 21 | 1009 | 1018 | 1021 | ---- | M1.6 | --/---- | CTM/1VI/2 |
Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive
Alle tijden in UTC
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