Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 04 november 1997

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1997 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 308 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 04 NOV 1997

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8100 (S21W38) PRODUCED AN X2/2B AT 04/0558Z. THIS EVENT HAD A 690 F.U. BURST AT 10 CM AND TYPE II/IV BURSTS. A HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS EVENT. THIS FLARE WAS PRECEDED BY AN M1 (NO OPTICAL) AT 04/0135Z AND AN M4/1F FROM REGION 8100 AT 04/0242Z. REGION 8100 ALSO PRODUCED MANY C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8100 CONTINUED TO GROW DURING THE PERIOD BUT AT A REDUCED RATE FROM THAT EXHIBITED ON 03 NOV. AREAL COVERAGE BECAME APPROXIMATELY 1000 MILLIONTHS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, SEVERAL AREAS THAT WERE EXHIBITING MIXED POLARITIES YESTERDAY ARE NOW FADING RESULTING IN A MORE BIPOLAR CONFIGURATION OF THE REGION. THE DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINED BUT APPARENTLY IS WEAKENING. A NEW REGION EMERGED AT A RAPID PACE NEAR N24E10, WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8103, AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE. REGION 8100 REMAINS POTENT BUT THE DECREASE IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY ARGUES STRONGLY THAT FLARE FREQUENCY AND PEAK FLARE FLUX SHOULD ABATE SLIGHTLY. LARGE M-CLASS OR SMALL X-CLASS FLARES COULD OCCUR BUT ONLY INFREQUENTLY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THE 04/1500-1800Z PERIOD. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 04/0640Z, PASSED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD AT 04/0830Z, AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 72 PFU AT 04/1120Z. THEREAFTER, GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES SLOWLY DECLINED AND AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WERE AT 16 PFU. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 2.6 PFU AT 04/0930Z. POLAR CAP ABSORPTION DURING THIS EVENT WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEEN 2.6 DB WITH A MAXIMUM AT APPROXIMATELY 04/1300Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE ON 05 NOV. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN ON 06 NOV AS A RESULT OF A HALO CME OBSERVED ON 03 NOV. MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 07 NOV FROM THE X2 EVENT AND HALO CME OBSERVED ON 04 NOV. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMING IS POSSIBLE ON 07 NOV. ANOTHER PROTON EVENT IS POSSIBLE SHOULD REGION 8100 PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ONLY ISOLATED MAJOR FLARES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 05 NOV tot 07 NOV
Klasse M70%70%70%
Klasse X25%25%25%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       04 NOV 118
  Voorspeld   05 NOV-07 NOV  121/122/120
  90 Day Mean        04 NOV 089
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV  015/020-025/035-050/060
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 05 NOV tot 07 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%25%25%
Kleine stormcondities10%30%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%15%30%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief20%25%20%
Kleine stormcondities20%35%30%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%20%35%

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