Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 31 maart 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 090 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 31 MAR 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 30-2100Z tot 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED TODAY, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C2/SF AT 0302Z FROM REGION 8190 (S22E36). REGION 8190 HAS SHOWN STEADY GROWTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WAS THE SOURCE OF THE MAJORITY OF TODAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY. NEW REGION 8191 (S23E48) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AND IS A SMALL BIPOLAR GROUP JUST EAST OF 8190. REGION 8185 (S25W51) IS STILL THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK BUT WAS DECLINING IN SUNSPOT AREA AND MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY. LASCO IMAGES BEGINNING AT 31/0626Z SHOWED A LARGE ERUPTION OF MATERIAL; THE PROJECTION WAS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE DISK. THE LACK OF ANY CORRESPONDING SIGNATURES ON THE DISK SUGGEST THAT THE SOURCE WAS PROBABLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SUN.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8190 IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE REGION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. MINOR INTENSITY SUBSTORMS WERE RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDE BETWEEN FROM 0300-0900Z, LEADING TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AT MID-LATITUDE STATIONS AND ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PLANETARY INDICES. THE FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR STORM LEVEL CONDITIONS, OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF A TRANSIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT ERUPTION ON 30 MARCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO UNSETTLED TO QUIET LEVELS BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 01 APR tot 03 APR
Klasse M15%15%15%
Klasse X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       31 MAR 108
  Voorspeld   01 APR-03 APR  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        31 MAR 099
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAR  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 APR-03 APR  020/015-012/020-007/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 01 APR tot 03 APR
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief50%40%25%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief60%50%25%
Kleine stormcondities30%25%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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