Het archief bekijken van maandag 20 april 1998
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Apr 20 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 110 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 20 APR 1998IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 19-2100Z tot 20-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. A LONG DURATION M1
X-RAY EVENT AND TYPE II SWEEP OCCURRED AT 20/1021UT. THE LIKELY
SOURCE FOR THE FLARE WAS BEHIND THE SW LIMB. SPACE-BASED SENSORS
INDICATE STRONG EMISSIONS ON THE LIMB ALONG S25. A LARGE CME WAS
ALSO OBSERVED OFF THE W-SW LIMB. FAINT POST FLARE LOOPS WERE ALSO
EVIDENT. REGION 8205 (N21W40) CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS, AND MAINTAINS IT'S DSO BETA CONFIGURATION. THE REMAINING
REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8205 HAS SMALL POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A C-CLASS
FLARE. FURTHER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SW LIMB IS POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY
AS POSSIBLE SOURCE REGION ROTATES FURTHER BEHIND THE LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 20/1130Z, PASSED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD AT
20/1400Z, AND IS CURRENTLY STEADY AT A MAXIMUM OF 330 PFU. THE
GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX IS AT 2.3 PFU AND STILL RISING
SLOWLY. POLAR CAP ABSORPTION IS CURRENTLY AT A MAXIMUM OF 6.4 DB.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. MOST OF THE MATERIAL
FROM THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY APPEARS WESTWARD BOUND, THUS, NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD. THE 10 AND
100 MEV PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 21 APR tot 23 APR
| Klasse M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Klasse X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 20 APR 098 Voorspeld 21 APR-23 APR 096/094/092 90 Day Mean 20 APR 104
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 APR 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 APR 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 APR-23 APR 010/010-012/012-010/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 21 APR tot 23 APR
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 11% | 11% |
Laatste nieuws
maandag 24 mei 2021 - 13:57 UTC
M flares, G2 geomagnetic storm watch
donderdag 22 april 2021 - 17:23 UTC
C3 solar flare with earth-directed CME
dinsdag 20 april 2021 - 18:26 UTC
M1.1 solar flare
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