Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 8 mei 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 May 08 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 128 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 08 MAY 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 07-2100Z tot 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THREE M-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS: AN M3 AT 0204Z (WITH TYPE II/IV SWEEPS), AND M1 AT 0608Z (WITH TYPE II/IV), AND AN M1 AT 1415Z. NO H-ALPHA FLARES WERE OBSERVED WITH THESE X-RAY EVENTS, BUT SUPPLEMENTAL DATA (EIT AND LASCO) INDICATE THAT REGION 8210, WHICH HAS ROTATED AROUND WEST LIMB, WAS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE. REGION 8214 (N28W61) WAS ABLE TO MUSTER A C5/1N FLARE AT 1306Z. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AND SIMPLIFYING, ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY TO THE LIMB MAKES ANALYSIS MORE DIFFICULT. A NEW B-TYPE GROUP NEAR N26E53 WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AS 8219. REGION 8218 (S20E48) APPEARS TO BE GROWING, BUT WAS FAIRLY STABLE. X-RAY IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE IS A REGION BEHIND THE NORTHEAST LIMB WHICH SHOULD ROTATE INTO VIEW SOMETIME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8214 OR 8218.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 07-2100Z tot 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE WERE SOME PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES, PARTICULARLY AROUND 07/2100-08/0200Z AND FROM 08/1500-08/1700Z.THE DISTURBANCE BEGAN GRADUALLY: THERE WAS NO CLEAR INDICATOR OF THE ARRIVAL OF A SHOCK AT L1 OR EARTH. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE DAY.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENCE FROM THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL NIGHTTIME SUBSTORM EFFECTS. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 09 MAY tot 11 MAY
Klasse M55%55%55%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       08 MAY 118
  Voorspeld   09 MAY-11 MAY  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        08 MAY 107
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAY  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAY  025/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAY-11 MAY  015/015-010/015-010/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 09 MAY tot 11 MAY
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief50%10%10%
Kleine stormcondities15%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%10%10%
Kleine stormcondities20%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%05%05%

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