Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 29 augustus 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 241 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 29 AUG 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 28-2100Z tot 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C5 AT 1836Z WHICH WAS NOT OBSERVED OPTICALLY. REGION 8307 (N32W52) CONTRIBUTED AT LEAST ONE OF THE C-CLASS EVENTS AT 1535Z. THE GROUP WAS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND STABLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8319 (N19W29) PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SIZE. REGION 8323 (S23E65) ROTATED FURTHER INTO VIEW TODAY AND APPEARS TO BE A BIPOLAR GROUP WITH PENUMBRA IN THE LEADER AND TRAILER.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. HOWEVER, EACH OF THE REGIONS 8307, 8319 AND 8323 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT, SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS AT THE HIGH LATITUDES. ACE REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW DENSITY, HIGH SPEED STREAM WITH WAVE-LIKE ACTIVITY IN THE BZ INTERPLANETARY FIELD. VARIATIONS IN BZ DOWN TO -5 NT ARE UNDOUBTEDLY THE SOURCE OF THE ENHANCED MAGNETIC ACTIVITY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES HAVE BEEN HIGH. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN 24/2355Z ENDED TODAY AT 29/1210Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, DECLINING TO UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 30 AUG tot 01 SEP
Klasse M20%20%20%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       29 AUG 147
  Voorspeld   30 AUG-01 SEP  150/150/140
  90 Day Mean        29 AUG 118
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG  026/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP  015/015-015/015-010/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 30 AUG tot 01 SEP
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief40%40%20%
Kleine stormcondities10%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%40%35%
Kleine stormcondities20%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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