Het archief bekijken van woensdag 13 oktober 1999
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Oct 13 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 286 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 13 OCT 1999IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 12-2100Z tot 13-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8731 (N11E38) AND 8732
(N20E30) PRODUCED MOST OF TODAY'S OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. BOTH
GROUPS ARE SHOWING GROWTH AND INCREASING MAGNETIC STRENGTH. REGION
8728 (N22E12) CONTINUES TO BE LARGE BUT SEEMED TO BE SIMPLIFYING
MAGNETICALLY AND WAS MOSTLY STABLE DURING THE DAY. A 27 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR N45E15 ERUPTED BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0914Z ON THE 13TH.
X-RAY AND CORONAGRAPH OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT THE DISAPPEARANCE
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL MASS EJECTION.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM
REGION 8728, 8731 OR 8732.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS EXPERIENCED ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AND THE DAYTIME HOURS WERE UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE. THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY THE PRESENCE
HIGH-SPEED CORONAL WIND STREAM AS INDICATED BY SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH
LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS,
WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDE, DUE TO
CONTINUED EFFECTS FROM THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM. A DECREASE TO
UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE IS EXPECTED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 14 OCT tot 16 OCT
| Klasse M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klasse X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 13 OCT 191 Voorspeld 14 OCT-16 OCT 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 13 OCT 156
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 OCT 021/034 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 OCT 020/028 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 OCT-16 OCT 025/030-025/025-010/020
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 14 OCT tot 16 OCT
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 40% | 40% | 10% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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donderdag 22 april 2021 - 17:23 UTC
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dinsdag 20 april 2021 - 18:26 UTC
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