Het archief bekijken van woensdag 10 november 1999
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1999 Nov 10 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 314 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 10 NOV 1999IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 09-2100Z tot 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. REGION
8759 (N10E33) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 10/0140Z. THIS REGION SHOWED
SLIGHT DECAY. RECENT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA INDICATE VERY LITTLE
MAGNETIC SHEAR IN THIS LARGE REGION. REGION 8753 (N19W23) BEGAN A
GROWTH PHASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF AT
10/1549Z. THE NUMBER OF SMALL SPOTS IN THIS REGION NEARLY DOUBLED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8760 (N13W03) GENERATED A C5/SF AT
10/0334Z. THE RATE OF GROWTH IN THIS REGION SLOWED DURING THE
PERIOD. REGION 8761 (N20E26) PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 10/1952Z. A
MODERATE SIZE CLASS C SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARED AT S13E75 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8763. THIS AREA PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL
C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8753, 8759, 8761
AND 8760 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 09-2100Z tot 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD
WAS FROM 09/2100-10/0000Z. DURING THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
SLOWLY DECREASED TO NEAR 520 KM/S. THIS DECREASE WAS NOT OBSERVED
FROM THIS CORONAL HOLE LAST SOLAR ROTATION. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 11-12 NOV.
ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE EXTENSIVE AND FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM WOULD CEASE BEFORE 12 NOV. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED FOR 13 NOV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCRONOUS
ORBIT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 11 NOV tot 13 NOV
| Klasse M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klasse X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 10 NOV 249 Voorspeld 11 NOV-13 NOV 255/260/262 90 dagen gemiddelde 10 NOV 158
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV 024/025 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV 014/014 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV 018/018-018/018-010/010
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 11 NOV tot 13 NOV
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Kleine storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Kleine storm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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