Het archief bekijken van zondag 06 februari 2000

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Feb 06 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 037 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 06 FEB 2000

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 05-2100Z tot 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C2/SF FLARE FROM REGION 8858 (N27E40) WAS THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD. THIS REGION HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE SINCE PRODUCING THE X1/3B MAJOR FLARE YESTERDAY. SOME NEW SPOTS WERE DETECTED BUT OVERALL, THE COMPLEXITY AND SIZE REMAINS THE SAME. SOME MINOR DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8861 (N07W27), WHICH PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO DETECTED IN REGION 8851 (N24W48). A PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED ERUPTING OFF THE SE LIMB AT 06/1650Z. NEW REGION 8862 (S04E75) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8858 RETAINS THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY. ISOLATED LOW C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL SMALL REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF A DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH MINOR STORMING PERIODS LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE EFFECTS OF THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE ON DAY ONE. EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING DAYS TWO AND THREE. MATERIAL FROM YESTERDAY'S IMPRESSIVE X1/3B CORONAL MASS EJECTION ALL APPEARED TO BE EASTWARD BOUND FROM ITS SOURCE NEAR THE NE LIMB AND WILL LIKELY NOT EFFECT EARTH.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 07 FEB tot 09 FEB
Klasse M40%40%35%
Klasse X15%15%10%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       06 FEB 178
  Voorspeld   07 FEB-09 FEB  180/185/190
  90 Day Mean        06 FEB 173
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 FEB  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 FEB  017/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 FEB-09 FEB  015/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 07 FEB tot 09 FEB
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief40%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities25%25%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%50%40%
Kleine stormcondities30%30%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%10%05%

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