Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 25 februari 2000

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 056 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 25 FEB 2000

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C8/SF AT 25/0919Z FROM REGION 8888 (N36E43). A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT BUT WAS DIRECTED OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. OTHER THAN THIS EVENT, THE REGION WAS MOSTLY STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8889 (N21E59) SHOWED ITSELF AS A MODERATE SIZE E CLASS GROUP AND PRODUCED SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. A LARGE NEW REGION ROTATED OVER THE EAST LIMB AT S13E72 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8891. THIS AREA WAS PREDOMINANTLY STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WERE ALSO HIGH LATITUDE MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD RETURN TO MODERATE LEVELS. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8891, 8889, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE, REGION 8888. THERE IS A SLIGHT BUT GROWING POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8891 AND 8889.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING WERE OBSERVED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD BUT REMAINED ELEVATED ABOVE 650 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH AROUND 25/1710Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING FOR 26 FEB. THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD SLOWLY DECLINE ON 27-28 FEB. QUIET TO OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A MINIMUM OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 26 FEB tot 28 FEB
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       25 FEB 210
  Voorspeld   26 FEB-28 FEB  213/215/218
  90 Day Mean        25 FEB   165
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 FEB  020/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 FEB  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 FEB-28 FEB  018/018-012/015-008/013
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 26 FEB tot 28 FEB
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief50%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities25%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities25%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%01%

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