Het archief bekijken van donderdag 08 juni 2000

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Jun 08 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 160 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 08 JUN 2000

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 07-2100Z tot 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED. TWO EVENTS WERE OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH REGION 9026 (N21W17). ONLY ONE C1/SF EVENT WAS OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH REGION 9033 (N22E42) AT 08/1811Z. REGION 9026 SHOWED A MODERATE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SPOTS WHILE THE AREA SLIGHTLY DECREASED, AND THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION OF THE REGION BECAME BETA GAMMA. OVERALL, IT APPEARS 9026 IS STARTING TO DECAY. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9033. NEW REGIONS 9035 (S17E15) AND 9036 (S23E73) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 9026 AND 9033 ARE EACH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM. A SUDDEN IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 08/0909Z (77 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER). THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY JUMPED FROM 520 TO OVER 800 KM/S AT 08/0841Z. MINOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE SHOCK ARRIVAL. THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO BE RELATED TO THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT PEAKED AT 84 PFU'S AT 08/0940Z AND IS DECREASING AT THIS TIME. A MODERATE (7.4 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE PEAKED NEAR 08/1449Z. A MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSING WAS OBSERVED ON GOES-8 (W075) BEGAN AT 08/1510Z AND CONTINUED UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 08/1615Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY. GEOMAGNETIC STORMING SHOULD START TO DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS BY THE THIRD DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD IF MODERATE EFFECTS ARE OBSERVED FROM THE X1/3B EVENT ON 7 JUNE.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 09 JUN tot 11 JUN
Klasse M70%70%60%
Klasse X25%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       08 JUN 175
  Voorspeld   09 JUN-11 JUN  185/190/200
  90 Day Mean        08 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUN  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUN  035/055
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUN-11 JUN  060/075-025/040-015/025
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 09 JUN tot 11 JUN
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities40%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities25%15%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief10%50%40%
Kleine stormcondities60%30%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities30%20%10%

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