Het archief bekijken van donderdag 20 juli 2000

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Jul 20 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 202 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 20 JUL 2000

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 19-2100Z tot 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A HIGH LEVEL. REGION 9087 (S11W11) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M5/1B AT 20/2025Z WITH A 10 CM BURST OF 490 SFU. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION M3/1F AT 20/1006Z WITH MEDIUM INTENSITY CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. THE GROWTH RATE IN THIS REGION SLOWED. AREAS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINED BUT THE STEEP GRADIENTS OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS APPEAR TO HAVE LESSENED. REGION 9097 (N05E55) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS. THIS REGION SHOWED A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION IN ITS LEADER SPOT. REGION 9090 (N11E21) EXHIBITED SOME LEADER GROWTH AND SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS ORIGINATED FROM THAT AREA. A TYPE II BURST OCCURRED AT 20/1652Z WITH NO APPROPRIATE OPTICAL COUNTERPART.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO HIGH FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 9087 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. THIS REGION IS ALSO CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES. OTHER DISK REGIONS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FULL DISK M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. FOLLOWING THE SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 19/1526Z, BZ WAS NORTHWARD UNTIL IT TURNED SOUTHWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 20/0000Z AND STORM CONDITIONS ENSUED. BZ BECAME NORTHWARD AGAIN AROUND 20/1300Z AND THE FIELD CALMED TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 14 JULY ENDED AT 19/2330Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD RETURN TO STORM LEVELS EARLY ON 21 JULY IN RESPONSE TO A SUSPECTED (NO CORONAGRAPH DATA) MASS EJECTION WITH THE M6 FLARE ON 19 JULY. MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED PERIODS OF SEVERE STORMING ARE POSSIBLE. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO 22 JULY WITH UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FORECAST. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 23 JULY. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 21 JUL tot 23 JUL
Klasse M85%80%75%
Klasse X35%30%20%
Proton35%30%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       20 JUL 253
  Voorspeld   21 JUL-23 JUL  245/235/230
  90 Day Mean        20 JUL 188
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JUL  010/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUL  038/052
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUL-23 JUL  050/050-025/020-015/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 21 JUL tot 23 JUL
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%30%20%
Kleine stormcondities25%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities30%10%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief25%30%20%
Kleine stormcondities25%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities30%10%05%

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