Het archief bekijken van donderdag 14 september 2000

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Sep 14 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 258 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 14 SEP 2000

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 13-2100Z tot 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 9166 (S13E71) PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 14/0627Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS INHIBITING A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF THIS REGION, BUT FREQUENT SURGING AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS SUGGEST A MODERATELY COMPLEX REGION ROTATING INTO VIEW. REGION 9165 (N13E13) DEVELOPED RAPIDLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. FROM A SIMPLE SMALL THREE SPOT BETA CONFIGURATION YESTERDAY, THIS REGION EVOLVED INTO A BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP WITH OVER 20 SPOTS COVERING NEARLY 300 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. SLIGHT GROWTH WAS ALSO NOTED IN REGIONS 9156 (S26W53), AND 9162 (S32W63).
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH THE EMERGENCE OF REGION 9165, AND NEW REGION 9166. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 12/1555Z IS STILL IN PROGRESS. A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 321 PFU OCCURRED AT 13/0340Z. THE EVENT HAS BEEN IN SLOW DECAY SINCE THE MAXIMUM AND IS CURRENTLY AT 18 PFU. THE PCA THAT BEGAN NEAR 12/1830Z, ENDED AT 14/1532Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO SOON EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS. A CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE 12 SEP, M1/2N FLARE WILL LIKELY IMPACT EARLY ON DAY ONE. STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF DAY ONE AND RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY DAYS TWO AND THREE. THE >10 MEV PROTON EVENT SHOULD END ON DAY ONE, ALTHOUGH AN ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE EXPECTED CME.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 15 SEP tot 17 SEP
Klasse M10%10%15%
Klasse X01%01%05%
Proton99%30%05%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       14 SEP 151
  Voorspeld   15 SEP-17 SEP  155/160/170
  90 Day Mean        14 SEP 177
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP  010/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP  050/045-015/012-008/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 15 SEP tot 17 SEP
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%35%20%
Kleine stormcondities40%30%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities40%20%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief10%40%25%
Kleine stormcondities45%40%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities45%20%10%
COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 0CT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASES VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEB SITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

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