Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 26 september 2000
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Sep 26 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 270 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 26 SEP 2000IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 25-2100Z tot 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C-8 X-RAY BURST AT 26/2000Z. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED IN ANY NUMBERED REGIONS BUT SURGING NOTED ON THE SE LIMB
BECAME PARTICULARLY BRIGHT AND ENHANCED DURING THIS X-RAY EVENT.
LARGE REGION 9169 (N12W34) CONTINUES TO DECAY AND APPEARS TO NO
LONGER CONTAIN A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONLY LOW C-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM THIS REGION. REGION 9173 (S13E51)
UNDERWENT SOME GROWTH AND PRODUCED A C4/SF FLARE AT 26/1231Z. NEW
REGIONS 9174 (S30W60) AND 9175 (N21E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 9169, THOUGH DECAYING, IS STILL CAPABLE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK
MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THIS DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
SOLAR WIND SPEED WAS AVERAGING NEAR 600 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF
MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE ON DAYS ONE AND TWO. A CME ASSOCIATED WITH
THE M-1 FLARE ON 25/0215Z MAY ENHANCE THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
THROUGH DAY TWO. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON DAY THREE.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 27 SEP tot 29 SEP
| Klasse M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 26 SEP 224 Voorspeld 27 SEP-29 SEP 210/200/190 90 Day Mean 26 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP 013/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP 020/021 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP 020/020-012/010-012/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 27 SEP tot 29 SEP
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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