Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 26 september 2000

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Sep 26 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 270 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 26 SEP 2000

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 25-2100Z tot 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD WAS A C-8 X-RAY BURST AT 26/2000Z. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN ANY NUMBERED REGIONS BUT SURGING NOTED ON THE SE LIMB BECAME PARTICULARLY BRIGHT AND ENHANCED DURING THIS X-RAY EVENT. LARGE REGION 9169 (N12W34) CONTINUES TO DECAY AND APPEARS TO NO LONGER CONTAIN A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONLY LOW C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM THIS REGION. REGION 9173 (S13E51) UNDERWENT SOME GROWTH AND PRODUCED A C4/SF FLARE AT 26/1231Z. NEW REGIONS 9174 (S30W60) AND 9175 (N21E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 9169, THOUGH DECAYING, IS STILL CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM. SOLAR WIND SPEED WAS AVERAGING NEAR 600 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE ON DAYS ONE AND TWO. A CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE M-1 FLARE ON 25/0215Z MAY ENHANCE THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE THROUGH DAY TWO. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY THREE.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 27 SEP tot 29 SEP
Klasse M50%50%50%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       26 SEP 224
  Voorspeld   27 SEP-29 SEP  210/200/190
  90 Day Mean        26 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP  013/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP  020/021
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP  020/020-012/010-012/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 27 SEP tot 29 SEP
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief50%50%40%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%40%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%50%40%
Kleine stormcondities30%30%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%10%05%
VII. COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

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