Het archief bekijken van donderdag 5 april 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Apr 05 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 095 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 05 Apr 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 04-2100Z tot 05-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Two major flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The first was a long-duration M8 that peaked at 0922Z, originating from Region 9393 behind the west limb. This flare was associated with a CME which gives every indication of moving in a westward direction, perpendicular to the Earth-Sun line. The second was an M5/2n at 1725Z from Region 9415 (S21E47). This event had an extended maximum and a slow decay profile. An associated CME was just entering the C2 field of view at forecast issue time and did not appear to have any earthward component. Region 9415 appears to have formed a delta configuration in the leader portion of the group. Region 9417 (S08E27) grew rapidly during the last 24 hours and produced an M1/Sn flare at 0834Z. Today's 10.7 cm background flux of 210 SFU had to be estimated due to greatly enhanced radio noise levels occurring with today's long-duration flare activity.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate during the next three days. There is a fair chance, however, for additional major flares from Region 9415.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 04-2100Z tot 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to active during the past 24 hours. The first nine hours of the period were quiet, but activity increased to mostly active from 0600-2100Z. There was a minor storm period at high latitudes from 0900-1200Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues in progress with a continued slow decline in flux levels. The flux at 05/2100Z was 25 pfu.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, with a chance for some isolated active periods. Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail for the second and third days.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 06 Apr tot 08 Apr
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X20%20%20%
Proton99%20%20%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       05 Apr 210
  Voorspeld   06 Apr-08 Apr  210/210/205
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 04 Apr  012/015
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  015/015
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  015/015-012/008-012/008
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 06 Apr tot 08 Apr
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%25%20%
Kleine stormcondities15%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%25%20%
Kleine stormcondities20%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%10%10%

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