Het archief bekijken van woensdag 11 april 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Apr 11 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 101 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 11 Apr 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 10-2100Z tot 11-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A single M-class event occurred during the period. Region 9415 (S22W27) produced an M2/1f parallel ribbon flare at 11/1326 UTC. This event was accompanied by Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 540 sfu 10 cm radio burst, and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Two new regions were numbered: 9426 (S09E40) and 9427 (S07W12).
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9415 can be expected to produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 10-2100Z tot 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. Two discernable shocks were detected by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 11/1300 and 11/1520 UTC. These effects were most likely the precursors for the two earth-directed CME's produced on 9-10 April. The resulting CME's arrival at earth produced severe geomagnetic storming during the period of 11/1500-1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at high levels all period long, reaching a maximum of 322 PFU near the end of the period. A polar cap absorption (PCA) event remained in effect during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has at high levels for the first part of the period and then decreased to moderate levels for the remainder of the period.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at active to major storm levels during the first day of the period. A second geomagnetic storm is expected to arrive late on 12 April or early on 13 April UTC. This disturbance will be the result of the full-halo CME described in Section 1A. Brief severe storm levels at high latitudes can be expected. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 14 April as the storm subsides. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the period. The PCA event is expected to end during the latter half of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at mostly moderate levels during the period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 12 Apr tot 14 Apr
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X25%25%25%
Proton80%25%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       11 Apr 160
  Voorspeld   12 Apr-14 Apr  160/160/155
  90 Day Mean        11 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 10 Apr  007/009
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 11 Apr  050/060
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  060/090-050/050-020/025
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 12 Apr tot 14 Apr
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief15%15%35%
Kleine stormcondities25%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities45%45%10%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief15%25%35%
Kleine stormcondities30%30%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities50%35%15%

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