Het archief bekijken van maandag 24 september 2001
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Sep 24 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 267 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 24 Sep 2001IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9632 (S19E19) produced
an X2/2b flare at 1038 UTC. Significant discrete frequency radio
bursts (i.e., 7500 sfu at 2695 MHz) accompanied the event, as well
as a Type IV sweep which lasted for many hours. A full halo coronal
mass ejection was seen by SOHO/LASCO. This region remains bright in
H-alpha and still shows mixed polarities in its largest spot.
Elsewhere on the disk occasional small flares occurred from a number
of the 15 spotted regions visible. Two new regions were assigned,
Region 9636 (N12E65) and Region 9637 (S14E71).
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9632 is still a threat to produce
additional M and X class activity.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Satellite proton events
at greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV began shortly after the
X2/2b flare. The greater than 10 MeV protons crossed threshold at
1215 UTC, and reached a tentative maximum of 1,020 pfu at 2040 UTC.
The greater than 100 MeV event began at 1440 UTC and attained its
tentative maximum of 10.6 pfu at 2020 UTC. Neither trace is
declining at this writing. In addition a Polar Cap Absorption event
began at 1315 UTC, and registered a peak value of 9.0 dB of
absorption at 30 MHz at approximately 1935 UTC.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at major to severe storm levels beginning early on 26
September. The cme/flare event of earlier today is expected to spawn
a strong disturbance expected to persist for 48 hours. The proton
events currently occurring are likely to continue for the next 24
hours. The Polar Cap Absorption is expected to continue throughout
the day on 25 September.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 25 Sep tot 27 Sep
| Klasse M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klasse X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 30% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 24 Sep 279 Voorspeld 25 Sep-27 Sep 285/290/285 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 168
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 23 Sep 018/027 Verwacht Afr/Ap 24 Sep 010/012 Voorspeld Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 015/020-080/100-040/040
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 25 Sep tot 27 Sep
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 30% | 05% | 10% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 15% | 25% | 50% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 65% | 25% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 40% | 05% | 10% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 70% | 40% |
Laatste nieuws
maandag 7 november 2022
M5.2 solar flare, Active geomagnetic conditions
vrijdag 28 oktober 2022
Active geomagnetic conditions, Coronal hole faces Earth
maandag 3 oktober 2022
X1.0 solar flare
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