Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 28 september 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Sep 28 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 271 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 28 Sep 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 27-2100Z tot 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. There were three M-class events observed during the past 24 hours. The first of these was an M3/2n from Region 9636 (N14E13) at 0830 UTC, which was associated with type II and type IV sweeps and a partial halo CME that appeared to be centered over the east limb. The second was an M2/1n from Region 9628 (S18W48) at 1014 UTC which was associated with a CME that was centered over the southwest limb. The 3rd was an M1/1f from Region 9637 (S15E18) at 1926 UTC. Regions 9628 and 9632 (S18W33) continue to dominate the disk in sunspot area and still maintain magnetic delta configurations. 9628 is showing some growth in the northern portion of the region. Region 9632 has been remarkably quiet, but continues to show a strong delta along an East-West inversion line. Region 9636 seems to be decaying slightly, but has a fairly complicated magnetic structure (gamma magnetic class).
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 9636, 9637, 9632 and 9628 all are capable of producing additional M-class level activity. Regions 9628 and 9632 have a fair chance for producing an isolated major flare event sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 27-2100Z tot 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 24/1215 UTC continues in progress as the flux levels declined slowly. The flux level at forecast issue time was 94 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electrons attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 48 hours. The influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to increase activity levels slightly. In addition, there is a possibility for some active conditions on the third day as the result of a glancing blow from either of today's CME events. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime in the next 24-36 hours.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 29 Sep tot 01 Oct
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X30%30%30%
Proton99%30%30%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       28 Sep 266
  Voorspeld   29 Sep-01 Oct  260/260/255
  90 Day Mean        28 Sep 174
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 27 Sep  009/010
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 28 Sep  013/015
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  015/015-015/018-020/018
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 29 Sep tot 01 Oct
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%25%20%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%30%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%20%25%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%30%25%
Kleine stormcondities25%25%35%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%20%30%

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