Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 19 oktober 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Oct 19 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 292 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 19 Oct 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 18-2100Z tot 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9661 (N16W35) was very active producing two X class flares. The first flare was a X1/2b at 19/0105 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (914 km/s). The second flare was a X1/2b at 19/1630 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (738 km/s). SOHO/LASCO imagery shows full halo CMEs associated with both events. A Type IV radio sweep was also detected with both CME events. Other activity was centered around Region 9658 (S14W61). This region produced an M5/1b flare at 19/0943 UTC and several other minor M-class and C-class flares. New Region 9674 (S08E34) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9658 and Region 9661 are very active producing major flares. There has been very little change in their characteristics from yesterday, so the potential for a major flare remains good.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 18-2100Z tot 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 10 MeV proton levels was enhanced due to the two CMEs from Region 9661, but remained just below event threshold.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for day one. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected on day two and three with the possibility for isolated major storm conditions. Analysis of the full halo CME (19/0105 UTC from Region 9661) indicated shock arrival late on day two or early on day three (57-72 hour transit time). The shock arrival from the second full halo CME (19/1630 UTC from Region 9661) is expected to arrive late on day three of the period (76-81 hour transit time). Greater than 10 MeV proton levels may exceed event threshold on the first day of the period. Further enhancements may occur if major flare activity continues.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 20 Oct tot 22 Oct
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X20%20%20%
Proton75%50%20%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       19 Oct 248
  Voorspeld   20 Oct-22 Oct  250/250/245
  90 Day Mean        19 Oct 189
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 18 Oct  002/004
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  006/008
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  010/012-025/025-030/035
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 20 Oct tot 22 Oct
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief15%55%55%
Kleine stormcondities05%30%30%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief20%55%55%
Kleine stormcondities15%30%35%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%10%10%

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