Het archief bekijken van woensdag 24 oktober 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 297 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 24 Oct 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6/Sf from Region 9678 (N07E34) at 24/1841 UTC. This region has increased in area (140 millionths), spot count (22) and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 9672 (S19W13) has increased in arial coverage to 490 millionth, increased spot count to 26 and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This region has produced minor C-class flares and has the potential for a major flare. Region 9669 (N14W51) also produced minor C-class flares.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a chance of an isolated high level condition. Region 9672 continues to have a good chance of producing a major flare. Region 9678 also has the potential for a major flare.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The shock arrival from the two CMEs (M6/2N on 22/1502 UTC and X1/2B on 22/1759 UTC)) appears to have lower shock velocity than expected. No shock signature was observed from the NASA ACE/EPAM, MAG, SWEPAM instruments as of the time of this forecast issue. Greater than 10 MeV protons were elevated but continued slow decay.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Further analysis of the expected CME shock combined with the lack of shock signature by ground and space based instruments indicates that the shock arrival is expected on day one or even early on day two of the period. Shock arrival is expected to result in active to minor storm levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions by day three. Greater than 10 MeV protons are expected to remain elevated but continue to decay throughout the period barring a major flare event.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 25 Oct tot 27 Oct
Klasse M80%75%75%
Klasse X35%25%25%
Proton25%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       24 Oct 239
  Voorspeld   25 Oct-27 Oct  225/220/215
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 194
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 23 Oct  010/015
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  008/010
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  030/040-015/020-010/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 25 Oct tot 27 Oct
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief50%30%20%
Kleine stormcondities30%10%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%30%25%
Kleine stormcondities35%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%05%05%

<< Keer terug naar de overview pagina

Laatste nieuws

Steun Poollicht.be!

Om ook bereikbaar te blijven bij grote poollichtkansen hebben we een zware server nodig die alle bezoekers aankan. Doneer en steun dit project zodat we online blijven en je geen enkele poollichtkans mist!

62%
Steun SpaceWeatherLive met onze merchandise
Check nu onze merchandise

Ruimteweer feitjes

Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting07/05/2021M3.9
Laatste geomagnetische storm12/05/2021Kp7 (G3)
Zonnevlekkenloze dagen
Afgelopen 365 dagen150 dagen
202147 dagen (35%)
Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag06/05/2021

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12012M5.1
22013M3.2
32002M2.9
41999M2.3
52005M1.8
ApG
1200028G2
2199530G2
3199812G1
4200516
5199415
*sinds 1994

Sociale netwerken