Het archief bekijken van donderdag 01 november 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 305 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 01 Nov 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 31-2100Z tot 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been high due to five M-class events observed during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M3/Sf at 1210 UTC from newly numbered Region 9687 (S19E71). Region 9687 produced three additional M-class events and exhibited frequent brightenings throughout the day. An additional M-class event (M1/Sf) came from Region 9678 (N07W75) at 0653 UTC. Region 9682 (N11W22) continues to dominate the disk in terms of apparent size and magnetic complexity, and also exhibited occasional flare activity during the day, some of which were occurring at the same time as flare activity in Region 9687. SXI imagery clearly indicated, however, that new Region 9687 was the dominant contributor to the X-ray flux during the four M-class events mentioned previously.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class events should continue, with regions 9687 and 9682 being the main contributors to activity. There continues to be a chance for an isolated major flare event or proton producing event during the next three days.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 31-2100Z tot 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. Approximately five hours after yesterday's shock at 31/1352 UTC, the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward and maintained moderately strong negative values (-8 to -12 nT) from 31/1810 UTC until around 01/1710 UTC. This led to mostly active levels, with a minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC. At forecast issue time activity had declined to unsettled and Bz was weakly northwards.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 02 Nov tot 04 Nov
Klasse M90%90%90%
Klasse X25%25%25%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       01 Nov 236
  Voorspelt   02 Nov-04 Nov  225/225/230
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 204
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/009
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  025/025
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  012/012-012/010-010/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 02 Nov tot 04 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%25%20%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief25%25%20%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%10%05%

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