Het archief bekijken van zondag 04 november 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 308 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 04 Nov 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 9684 (N06W27) produced an X1/3b flare beginning at 1603 UTC, maximum at 1620 UTC, and ending at 1647 UTC. The event was accompanied by strong radio bursts, a type II sweep, and a type IV sweep. A CME was observed to enter the C2 field of view during the flare, with the leading edge just visible at 1635 UTC. The front edge moved quickly across C2 and exited somewhere between 1655 UTC and 1705 UTC. Region 9684 has grown and the leader and trailer spots merged during the past 24 hours, making the region a beta-gamma-delta group. Region 9687 (S20E35) continues to be a complex, beta-gamma group and produced a few C-class subflares. Region 9682 (N13W64) is still the largest group on the disk but could only muster a couple of subflares. A 10 degree filament just west of Region 9684 disappeared sometime between 03/2208 UTC and 04/0629 UTC.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class events are likely to occur during the next three days. There is a fair chance for an additional major flare from Region 9684, especially if new magnetic flux continues to emerge. Regions 9682 and 9687 also continue to pose a slight threat for major flare activity.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. A greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 1650 UTC, shortly after today's X-class flare. Flux levels rose quickly initially, but began to level off around 1800 UTC, although they are still climbing slowly. The maximum 100 MeV flux observed so far is 56 pfu at 2035 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1705 UTC. This event also seems to be leveling off, and the maximum flux observed so far is 1180 pfu at 2040 UTC.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active tomorrow. Major storm conditions are likely to follow the arrival of a shock from today's solar event, sometime early on the 2nd day (06 November). The disturbance is expected to last for about 24 hours, and a decrease to mostly active conditions should occur on the third day. Today's greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 12 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should continue tomorrow, and is likely to get an enhancement of flux levels on the second day with the arrival of the interplanetary shock from today's solar event.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 05 Nov tot 07 Nov
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X25%25%25%
Proton99%80%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       04 Nov 227
  Voorspelt   05 Nov-07 Nov  220/215/210
  90 Day Mean        04 Nov 206
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 03 Nov  001/003
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  007/008
  Voorspelt    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  015/015-050/050-025/025
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 05 Nov tot 07 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%10%20%
Kleine stormcondities15%15%35%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%75%35%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief25%05%15%
Kleine stormcondities15%10%30%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%80%35%

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