Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 06 november 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Nov 06 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 310 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 06 Nov 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 05-2100Z tot 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Four M-class events were reported during the period. Region 9687 (S20E08) produced the largest event, an M2/1b flare at 06/0300 UTC. This event also had an accompanying Type II radio sweep (velocity estimated at 600 km/s). Region 9687 developed into a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification during the period. Region 9690 was by far, the most active region on the disk today. It produced several C-class events and two minor M-class events. Region 9690 has fully rotated onto the disk and appears to be a moderately large region (750 millionths) with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 9684 (N06W55), which produced the X1/3b proton flare on 04 November, retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification, but did not produce any significant activity during the period.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to continue to be moderate to high. Regions 9684, 9687, and 9690 all possess major flare potential.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 05-2100Z tot 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm conditions. The full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) from the 04 November event impacted the geomagnetic field at 06/0150 UTC. This was indicated by a 90 nT sudden impulse as measured by the USGS Boulder magnetometer. Severe geomagnetic storming occurred between 06/0000 and 06/0600 UTC and 15-1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event peaked at 31,700 pfu at 06/0215 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event peaked at 253 pfu at 06/0220 UTC. Both proton events levels declined sharply during the period but continued through the end of the day. A polar cap absorption event remained in effect.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm conditions on the first day of the period and then declining to mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions possible, on days two and three. However, there have been several long and near long duration flares in the last two days that could have produced earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Since the onset of the proton storm at approximately 1700 UTC on 04 November, the LASCO instrument has been saturated by the particles and it is nearly impossible to determine if any CME's have been produced or if they are earth-directed. Impacts from any earth-directed CME's would obviously cause an increase in geomagnetic activity. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to continue until approximately 07/1200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event ended the day at 567 pfu and is expected to continue for at least another 24 hours. The Polar cap absorption event is expected to last until 09/0000 UTC.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 07 Nov tot 09 Nov
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X25%25%25%
Proton99%99%80%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       06 Nov 237
  Voorspeld   07 Nov-09 Nov  235/235/230
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 208
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 05 Nov  012/013
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  075/100
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  030/030-012/015-010/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 07 Nov tot 09 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief50%35%35%
Kleine stormcondities25%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities04%04%04%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%30%25%
Kleine stormcondities35%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%10%05%

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