Het archief bekijken van donderdag 08 november 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Nov 08 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 312 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 08 Nov 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 07-2100Z tot 08-2100Z

Activity remained at high levels. Region 9687 (S19W18) produced an impulsive M9/1n flare at 08/0704 UTC associated with a 460 SFU Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (est. velocity 818 km/sec). It also produced an impulsive C8/Sn flare at 08/1904 UTC, possibly associated with Type II (est. velocity 928 km/sec) and Type IV radio sweeps. This region showed no significant changes prior to or following the major flare, but it remained moderate in size and magnetic complexity, mainly due to the presence of a small delta magnetic configuration within its interior spots. Region 9690 (S13E31) remained the most impressive sunspot group on the disk with an area exceeding 1000 millions of the visible disk. It produced occasional flares including three M-class, the largest of which was an M4/2f at 08/1535 UTC. This region continued to increase in spot count, area, and magnetic complexity with strong magnetic gradients and a magnetic delta configuration within its leader spots. Region 9684 (N06W82), which was responsible for the X1/3b flare on 04 November, began a relatively quiet west limb passage. The remaining regions were unimpressive in most respects. No new regions were assigned today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Regions 9690 and 9687 have the potential for major flare production.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 07-2100Z tot 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit continued. The greater than 10 MeV flux was 35 PFU and gradually decreasing at the close of the period. This event began at 04/1705 UTC and reached a maximum of 31,700 PFU at 06/0215 UTC. The polar cap absorption event that began on 04 November ended today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first day increasing to quiet to active levels on the last two days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 09 November. There will be a slight chance for another proton flare during the period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 09 Nov tot 11 Nov
Klasse M90%90%90%
Klasse X30%30%30%
Proton75%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       08 Nov 248
  Voorspeld   09 Nov-11 Nov  245/250/250
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 210
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 07 Nov  011/015
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  006/008
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  008/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 09 Nov tot 11 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%40%40%
Kleine stormcondities10%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief25%40%40%
Kleine stormcondities10%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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