Het archief bekijken van woensdag 26 december 2001

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Dec 26 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 360 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 26 Dec 2001

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 25-2100Z tot 26-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9742 (N12W68) produced an M7/1b proton flare at 26/0540 UTC. The flare was associated with strong type II/IV sweeps and a 2600 sfu burst at 2695 MHz. This Region also produced several other flares this past day including an M1/1f at 26/1226 UTC and an M1/Sf at 26/1718 UTC. Small flares also occurred in Regions 9748 (S10W48), 9751 (N04E04), and 9754 (S09E24). Several small new regions were numbered -- 9756 (S28E72), 9757 (S09E02), 9758 (N13E20), 9759 (N17E28), 9760 (N06E35), and 9761 (N09E75).
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Another major flare is possible in Region 9742. M-class flares are also possible in Regions 9748, 9751, and 9754.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 25-2100Z tot 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 100 MeV and 10 MeV proton events occurred in association with the major flare discussed in part IA. The greater than 100 MeV event started at 26/0555 UTC, reached a peak of 50 pfu at 26/0720 UTC, and dropped below the 1 pfu event threshold at 26/1920 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event started at 26/0605 UTC, reached a peak of 779 pfu at 26/1115 UTC, and continues in progress (current flux about 115 pfu). This particle event was also associated with a GLE starting at about 26/0600 UTC and reaching a maximum at about 26/0620 UTC (8% at Apatity, Oulu, and McMurdo, and 2% at Moscow). A Polar Cap Absorption event (PCA) also occurred, reaching a peak absorption of about 9 dB at 26/1115 UTC and continuing in progress at this writing.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled until the Earth encounters the CME associated with today's major flare. Active to storm conditions are expected to begin on 28 or 29 December. The bulk of the CME appeared to be directed to the west which increases the uncertainty of the begin time and eventual impact to the geomagnetic field.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 27 Dec tot 29 Dec
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton99%75%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       26 Dec 268
  Voorspeld   27 Dec-29 Dec  265/260/255
  90 Day Mean        26 Dec 217
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 25 Dec  011/008
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 26 Dec  008/006
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  008/008-030/012-015/020
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 27 Dec tot 29 Dec
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief15%50%30%
Kleine stormcondities05%25%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%10%10%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief20%50%50%
Kleine stormcondities10%30%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%15%10%

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