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Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2002 May 27 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 147 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 27 May 2002

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9957 (N10W73) produced an M2/2f flare at 27/1810 UTC associated with minor discrete radio emission. Gradual decay may have continued in this region, but it was difficult to tell given limb foreshortening effects. However, it appeared that a weak delta persisted within its northern cluster of spots. Region 9961 (S22W30) produced isolated subflares as it continued to decay. Region 9970 (N05E41) appeared to stabilize as a simply-structured D-type spot group. Active surging and subflare activity was observed on the southeast limb near SE17. This limb activity may indicate the active return of old Region 9934 (S16, L = 211). A filament erupted from the northeast quadrant around midday. The eruption was associated with C2 X-ray event and a CME off the northeast limb. The CME did not appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare during the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare as well.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity increased to quiet to active levels with minor storm conditions observed at some high latitude stations. This activity was likely due to coronal hole effects. ACE solar wind data indicated a gradual rise in velocities during the period with peak velocities in the 700 to 800 km/sec range.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
Quiet to active conditions are expected during the first half of the period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the remainder of the period. There is a slight chance for a proton event until 29 May.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 28 May tot 30 May
Klasse M40%40%40%
Klasse X05%05%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       27 May 187
  Voorspeld   28 May-30 May  180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        27 May 183
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 26 May  009/010
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 27 May  017/025
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 28 May tot 30 May
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities15%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities20%12%12%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%

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