Het archief bekijken van woensdag 14 augustus 2002

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2002 Aug 14 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 226 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 14 Aug 2002

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 13-2100Z tot 14-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 61 (N08W69) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0212 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep, partial-halo CME, and a solar proton event. Region 61 had been in a state of gradual decay for the last several days. Region 67 (N11E20) produced an M1/1f flare at 14/1815 UTC as well as a few C-class flares. It was in a growth phase during the period. Region 69 (S08E37) produced isolated C-class flares as it continued to gradually increase in area, which now exceeds 1500 millionths of the solar disk. Region 66 (N13E03) produced isolated C-class flares as it grew at a gradual pace. New Regions 78 (S13W12), 79 (S20E55), and 80 (N16E69) were numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible through the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare from Region 69.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 13-2100Z tot 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period, with brief active periods detected at high latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC and reached a preliminary maximum of 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit increased to moderate to high levels during the period.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
A geomagnetic disturbance is expected to begin during the latter half of 15 August and continue into 16 August following today's long-duration M2/partail-halo CME event. Active to minor storm conditions are expected during this disturbance. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 17 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime during the first half of the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 15 Aug tot 17 Aug
Klasse M45%45%45%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton90%75%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       14 Aug 208
  Voorspeld   15 Aug-17 Aug  210/215/215
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 13 Aug  009/013
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/015
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  015/020-025/030-012/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 15 Aug tot 17 Aug
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief40%35%25%
Kleine stormcondities20%30%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%10%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief45%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities25%35%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%20%01%

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