Het archief bekijken van woensdag 14 augustus 2002
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2002 Aug 14 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 226 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 14 Aug 2002IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 13-2100Z tot 14-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 61
(N08W69) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0212 UTC
associated with a Type II radio sweep, partial-halo CME, and a solar
proton event. Region 61 had been in a state of gradual decay for the
last several days. Region 67 (N11E20) produced an M1/1f flare at
14/1815 UTC as well as a few C-class flares. It was in a growth
phase during the period. Region 69 (S08E37) produced isolated
C-class flares as it continued to gradually increase in area, which
now exceeds 1500 millionths of the solar disk. Region 66 (N13E03)
produced isolated C-class flares as it grew at a gradual pace. New
Regions 78 (S13W12), 79 (S20E55), and 80 (N16E69) were numbered
today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible through
the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare from Region
69.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 13-2100Z tot 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
most of the period, with brief active periods detected at high
latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at
geo-synchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC and reached a preliminary
maximum of 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geo-synchronous orbit increased to moderate to high levels
during the period.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
A geomagnetic disturbance is
expected to begin during the latter half of 15 August and continue
into 16 August following today's long-duration M2/partail-halo CME
event. Active to minor storm conditions are expected during this
disturbance. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on 17 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to end sometime during the first half of the forecast
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at
moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 15 Aug tot 17 Aug
| Klasse M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Klasse X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 90% | 75% | 40% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 14 Aug 208 Voorspeld 15 Aug-17 Aug 210/215/215 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 13 Aug 009/013 Verwacht Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/015 Voorspeld Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 015/020-025/030-012/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 15 Aug tot 17 Aug
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 45% | 30% | 30% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 20% | 01% |
Laatste nieuws
zondag 15 januari 2023
Busy Sun! M-class flares and coronal mass ejections!
maandag 9 januari 2023
X1.9 solar flare
vrijdag 6 januari 2023
X1.2 solar flare
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