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Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2002 Oct 14 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 287 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 14 Oct 2002

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 13-2100Z tot 14-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate. A long-duration M2/Sf event occurred early in the period peaking at 14/0010 UTC, from bright plage just east of the large spot in Region 159 (S11E57). This event was accompanied by a large CME evident in SOHO/LASCO imagery, with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of about 850 km/s. Region 159 also produced a C4/Sf event at 14/0945 UTC. A Type-II radio sweep of estimated velocity 743 km/s was observed at 14/1429 UTC, in association with a small impulsive C1 flare, and followed shortly thereafter by a very long-lived enhancement in x-ray flux that began at about 14/1520 UTC, and remained in progress at the end of the period. Available H-alpha imagery revealed no apparent source for this activity, and SOHO EIT and LASCO data were mostly unavailable for the period. The lack of subsequent particle enhancement from this potential CME event seems to suggest an east-limb source for this activity. New Region 160 (S20E54) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 13-2100Z tot 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An extended interval of active conditions, with an isolated period of major storming at high latitudes, appeared to occur primarily due to a sustained strong southward orientation of Bz, and a slow increase in solar wind speed. Other solar wind data suggest an overall pattern of a CIR evolving toward to a weak high speed stream pattern near the end of the period.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for the early part of the forecast period, with mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of day one and into day two. By day three, some CME passage effects may occur in response to the solar activity described above, and may cause isolated active or minor storm conditions by the end of the period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 15 Oct tot 17 Oct
Klasse M30%30%30%
Klasse X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       14 Oct 181
  Voorspeld   15 Oct-17 Oct  175/175/165
  90 Day Mean        14 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 13 Oct  006/010
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  017/026
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  015/018-012/012-015/025
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 15 Oct tot 17 Oct
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities05%05%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities10%05%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%05%

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