Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 01 februari 2003

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Feb 01 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 032 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 01 Feb 2003

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 31-2100Z tot 01-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. All of today's flare activity was dominated by new Region 276 (S14E76), which produced an M1 at 0905 UTC, a C9/Sf at 1954 UTC, as well as numerous additional C-class subflares. Observations of the group so far indicate a relatively small (190 millionths) D-type sunspot group. An erupting prominence was observed at 31/2200 UTC on the Northwest limb and was associated with a type II sweep (shock velocity 500 km/s) and a CME seen by LASCO. The remainder of the regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 276 is expected to be the main driver of activity, and has a fair chance for producing an additional M-class event over the next three days.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 31-2100Z tot 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions prevailed for most of the day, but an increase to unsettled to active began at 1500 UTC. A marked increase in solar wind velocity and total magnetic field strength was observed beginning at 1300 UTC, but a predominantly positive value for Bz suppressed activity until 1900 UTC, when Bz turned weakly southwards. The interpretation of the enhanced solar wind flow is not obvious, but seems most consistent with the passage of transient flow due to the halo CME that occurred on 30 January. The great than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours with a chance for some isolated minor storm periods. Conditions should subside to unsettled to active by day two, and return to mostly unsettled levels by the third day.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 02 Feb tot 04 Feb
Klasse M35%35%35%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       01 Feb 126
  Voorspeld   02 Feb-04 Feb  130/135/140
  90 Day Mean        01 Feb 156
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 31 Jan  011/018
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 01 Feb  012/015
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  025/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 02 Feb tot 04 Feb
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%30%25%
Kleine stormcondities30%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%35%20%
Kleine stormcondities40%30%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%10%05%

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