Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 17 juni 2003

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 168 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 17 Jun 2003

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 16-2100Z tot 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 16-2100Z tot 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 - 09 UTC combined with elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major storm levels.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day three with minor storm levels possible.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 18 Jun tot 20 Jun
Klasse M40%40%40%
Klasse X20%20%20%
Proton30%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       17 Jun 122
  Voorspeld   18 Jun-20 Jun  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        17 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 16 Jun  020/032
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  040/050
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  020/030-020/030-020/025
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 18 Jun tot 20 Jun
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%40%40%
Kleine stormcondities15%20%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%50%50%
Kleine stormcondities20%25%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%15%15%
VII Comment: K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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