Het archief bekijken van zondag 22 juni 2003

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Jun 22 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 173 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 22 Jun 2003

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Just a single C-class flare this period - a C1/Sf at 22/0949Z from Region 388 (S02W32). This region has shown little change this period and still contains some weak magnetic mixing. Moderately complex Region 386 (S06W08) still maintains a weak delta configuration, but was quiet this period as it continues to slowly decay. Region 387 (N18E10) is the largest region the visible disk, but was also quiet. A new region rotating around the east limb was numbered today as Region 390.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated low M-class flare from Regions 386, 387 and 388.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels due to coronal hole high speed flow.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 23 Jun tot 25 Jun
Klasse M25%25%25%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       22 Jun 110
  Voorspeld   23 Jun-25 Jun  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 21 Jun  016/023
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  015/015
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 23 Jun tot 25 Jun
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities15%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%35%35%
Kleine stormcondities20%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%05%05%
Comments K-Indices On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated, the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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