Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 18 oktober 2003
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Oct 18 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 291 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 18 Oct 2003IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 17-2100Z tot 18-2100Z
Solar activity was low. A noticeable increase in flare
activity and background levels was observed during the past 24
hours. Most of this increase was due to newly numbered Region 484
(N05E68) which appears to be a compact D-type group with 240
millionths of area. The region produced numerous C-class flares: the
largest was a C4.9 at 1653 UTC. A partial halo CME was observed off
the southeast limb, beginning at 1554 UTC. The plane of sky velocity
was estimated to be about 700 km/s. Region 483 (S08E55) was assigned
today but so far is a small stable sunspot group. The other active
regions on the disk showed occasional brightenings but were mostly
quiet and stable.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days with Region 484 as the dominant source of
activity. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event
during the next three days.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 17-2100Z tot 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels as
the high speed solar wind stream continues. The solar wind speed did
not show any trend today and the average velocity was around 540
km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field Z-component fluctuated
between -7 nT and + 5 nT but was weakly negative on average. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. There
should be a gradual decline in activity sometime tomorrow and
conditions should be mostly unsettled for the second day. An
increase to mostly active with some minor storm periods is expected
on the third day as a new coronal hole rotates into favorable
position at that time. Today's CME is not expected to directly
impact Earth but might result in a glancing blow that could provide
a boost to activity on the third day.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 19 Oct tot 21 Oct
| Klasse M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klasse X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 18 Oct 109 Voorspeld 19 Oct-21 Oct 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 17 Oct 020/031 Verwacht Afr/Ap 18 Oct 017/025 Voorspeld Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 012/020-012/015-020/030
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 19 Oct tot 21 Oct
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 35% |
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