Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 28 oktober 2003

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 301 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 28 Oct 2003

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 27-2100Z tot 28-2100Z

Solar activity continues at high levels. Region 486 (S17E04) produced one of the largest flares of this solar cycle, an X17/4B proton flare peaking at 28/1110Z. This flare had intense radio bursts including a 245 MhZ burst near 500,000 sfu and a Tenflare of 13,000 pfu. A very fast (near 2000 km/s), earthward directed full halo CME was observed on SOHO/LASCO imagery. Region 486, a beta-gamma-delta group with over 2100 millionths of white light areal coverage, is now one of the largest and most complex active regions of solar cycle 23. Region 484 (N03W68) maintains considerable size and complexity as it approaches the west limb. It produced occasional C-class activity and a low M-class flare at 28/1613Z. Region 488 (N08W04) continues its rapid growth and now exceeds 800 millionths of coverage in a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Frequent C-class flare activity was observed in this region throughout the period. New region 493 (N09E05) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to continue at high levels. Region 486 in particular, has potential to produce further major flare activity. An isolated major flare is also possible from Regions 484 and 488.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 27-2100Z tot 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A CME was observed to pass the ACE spacecraft at around 0130Z. Solar wind speed rose to near 800 km/s, but Bz stayed northward, thwarting a significant geomagnetic response. The X17 flare that occurred at 28/1110Z produced proton events at greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV which remain in progress at this time. The greater than 100 MeV event began at 28/1145Z with a maximum so far of 176 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 28/1215Z with a maximum so far of 6020 pfu. A polar cap absorption began at 28/1237Z and remains in progress.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to potentially severe storming in the next 24 to 48 hours. Today's X17 flare produced a large and fast halo CME that will likely impact the Earth's magnetic field by midday on day one. Past events of this magnitude have almost always produced severe storming. The storm is expected to continue through at least the first half of day two. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on day three. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by day two. The greater than 10 MeV proton event will likely persist through day three.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 29 Oct tot 31 Oct
Klasse M90%90%90%
Klasse X50%50%50%
Proton99%99%75%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       28 Oct 274
  Voorspeld   29 Oct-31 Oct  270/260/250
  90 Day Mean        28 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 27 Oct  013/015
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  015/018
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  080/100-100/120-015/025
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 29 Oct tot 31 Oct
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief15%15%50%
Kleine stormcondities25%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities60%60%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief10%10%50%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities70%70%10%

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