Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 31 oktober 2003

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 304 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 31 Oct 2003

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 30-2100Z tot 31-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 488 (N08W42) produced an M1/Sf at 31/0616Z and occasional C-class flares throughout the period. This region maintains considerable size and complexity, but has yet to produce a major flare. An M2 flare was observed at 31/0433Z. Space-based imagery indicates that the source was likely behind the west limb (probably old Region 484 at N03, L=355). Huge Region 486 (S17W36) is finally showing some signs of decay. Activity this period was limited to occasional C-class flares. Despite its relative calm, this region still maintains a very complex magnetic structure in over 2000 millionths of white light areal coverage. New Region 496 (S12E09) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Though some decay was noted in Region 486, it still maintains potential for a major solar flare. Region 488 also contains potential for a major flare.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 30-2100Z tot 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. The intense geomagnetic storm that began at around 30/1600Z, continued well into this period. Severe storm levels persisted from 30/2100Z through 31/0900Z. Mostly active to major storm periods occurred through the latter half of the period. Solar radiation contamination on the ACE SWEPAM instrument finally ended at 31/0052Z. Solar wind speed was at an exceptionally high 1200 km/s, but has been in a gradual decline, ending the period at over 800 km/s. The prolonged periods of southward IMF Bz that occurred early in the period have ended. Bz has been mostly northward since 31/0200Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event in progress since 28/1145Z, ended at 31/0145Z. This prolonged high energy proton event was actually two distinct events associated with the X17 and X10 flares on the 28th and 29th respectively. The peak measurements for both events were 186 pfu at 29/0015Z and 110 pfu at 29/2310Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress, but is quickly declining to the 10 pfu alert threshold. The two peak measurements at 10 MeV were 29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z and 3300 pfu at 30/1935Z. The PCA event has ended.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through 1 November. Isolated major storm periods are possible at higher latitudes due to the very elevated solar wind speeds. The 2nd and 3rd of November should see a return to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on the 28th is expected to end on 1 November.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 01 Nov tot 03 Nov
Klasse M75%70%60%
Klasse X40%35%30%
Proton99%50%20%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       31 Oct 249
  Voorspeld   01 Nov-03 Nov  240/230/220
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 30 Oct  144/162
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  075/110
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  025/040-010/015-010/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 01 Nov tot 03 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief50%25%25%
Kleine stormcondities20%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief60%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities30%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%05%05%

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