Het archief bekijken van zondag 18 januari 2004

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2004 Jan 18 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 018 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 18 Jan 2004

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 17-2100Z tot 18-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 540 (S14E02) produced an M1/1n flare at 18/0017Z. Moderate to strong radio bursts accompanied this flare including a 190 sfu Tenflare and a large 23,000 sfu burst on 245 MHz. A Type II radio sweep was also observed with a shock speed of near 1000 km/s. This beta-gamma spot group has not changed much over the past 48 hours, although some new growth was noted in the trailer spots. Region 537 (N04W83) was quite active this period as it approached the west limb. It produced occasional C-class activity including a C3 flare and CME at 18/2003Z. Remaining regions were stable.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Moderately complex Region 540 has potential for isolated M-class flares. Further C-class activity is expected from Region 537 on the west limb.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 17-2100Z tot 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A coronal hole high speed stream continues with solar wind speed ranging from 520 to 620 km/s. The IMF Bz was predominantly northward; however, periods of southward Bz occurred inciting the occasional active periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storming over the next three days. The high speed solar wind stream in progress now is expected to persist through 19 January and produce occasional active periods. The M5 flare that occurred on 17 January did produce a CME, but LASCO imagery shows that most of the ejecta is southward directed. Some weak impacts are expected on 20 January from this CME, but the disturbance should be limited to occasional active periods with isolated high latitude minor storming. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 21 January with isolated active periods possible.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 19 Jan tot 21 Jan
Klasse M01%01%01%
Klasse X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       18 Jan 120
  Voorspeld   19 Jan-21 Jan  120/115/115
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 138
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 17 Jan  009/014
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  012/016
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  010/012-015/025-012/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 19 Jan tot 21 Jan
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%30%25%
Kleine stormcondities10%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%40%35%
Kleine stormcondities15%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%10%05%

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